I'm not a betting man, but if I were, the Oscars are the only thing I'd feel comfortable making predictions about. There are always the things that should win because they're heads and shoulders above the rest of the nominees, but they're usually defeated by the things that will win either because of popularity or Academy politics.
With that said, here's the list of the 90th Academy Awards nominees and my predictions for the winners and losers.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees
Timothée Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
Daniel Kaluuya
Gary Oldman
Denzel Washington
Should Win
Daniel Day-Lewis. He's retiring after this role and the Academy likes to award people for career swan songs. Also, he's incredible.
Will Win
Gary Oldman. The Academy likes it even more when a respected actor disappears into a role by wearing a ton of prosthetic makeup.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees
Willem Dafoe
Woody Harrelson
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins
Christopher Plummer
Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win
Willem Dafoe. His work in "The Florida Project" is downright beautiful.
Will Win
Sam Rockwell. He has the hype and the momentum right now. Plus, he made an irredeemable character somehow likable.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie
I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
Meryl Streep
Should Win
Frances McDormand. She's astounding in this role of a lifetime.
Will Win
Frances McDormand. It's hers to lose. Sally Hawkins might sneak in there.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees
Mary J. Blige
Allison Janney
I, Tonya
Lesley Manville
Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer
The Shape of Water
Should Win
Lesley Manville. You can watch her become a movie star before your very eyes.
Will Win
Laurie Metcalf. The performance is too honest and heartbreaking to be ignored.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees
The Boss Baby
Tom McGrath and Ramsey Naito
The Breadwinner
Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
Carlos Saldanha and Lori Forte
Loving Vincent
Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart
Should Win
"Coco." Yeah, the craftsmanship behind "Loving Vincent" is remarkable, but "Coco" is an all-timer.
Will Win
"Coco." It's just too good not to take this award.
Cinematography
Nominees
Blade Runner 2049
Roger A. Deakins
Darkest Hour
Bruno Delbonnel
Hoyte van Hoytema
Rachel Morrison
The Shape Of Water
Dan Laustsen
Should Win
As much as I want Deakins to finally win, Dan Laustsen's work on "The Shape of Water" is timeless.
Will Win
Dan Laustsen. Every frame is a painting.
Costume Design
Nominees
Beauty And The Beast
Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour
Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread
Mark Bridges
The Shape Of Water
Luis Sequeira
Victoria & Abdul
Consolata Boyle
Should Win
Mark Bridges. In a film about haute couture, Bridges' work is astonishing.
Will Win
Mark Bridges. He finds the design through the eyes of a fictional character. That's incredible.
Directing
Nominees
Christopher Nolan
Get Out
Jordan Peele
Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape Of Water
Guillermo del Toro
Should Win
Jordan Peele. The layers upon layers of meaning Poole threaded throughout the film take multiple viewings to notice.
Will Win
Guillermo del Toro. His work is so assured and nuanced. He's guaranteed this win.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees
Abacus: Small Enough To Jail
Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman
Faces Places
Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda
Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
Last Men In Aleppo
Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen
Strong Island
Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
Should Win
"Last Man in Aleppo." A true powerhouse.
Will Win
"Faces Places." It has the momentum and marketing campaign. It's also a great film.
Film Editing
Nominees
Baby Driver
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Lee Smith
I, Tonya
Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape Of Water
Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jon Gregory
Should Win
Lee Smith. The entire narrative of "Dunkirk" is built around the tricky chronological editing.
Will Win
Lee Smith. "Dunkirk" is underrated and deserves this one.
Foreign Language Film
Nominees
A Fantastic Woman
Chile
The Insult
Lebanon
Loveless
Russia
On Body And Soul
Hungary
The Square
Sweden
Should Win
"The Square." It hasn't left my mind since I screened it.
Will Win
"The Square." Hollywood loves films that mock pretentiousness.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
Darkest Hour
Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
Victoria & Abdul
Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Arjen Tuiten
Should Win
"Darkest Hour." They made Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill.
Will Win
"Darkest Hour." They made Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill!!
Music (Original Score)
Nominees
Dunkirk
Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread
Jonny Greenwood
The Shape Of Water
Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Carter Burwell
Should Win
If Jonny Greenwood or Carter Burwell won, I would do a little dance for you.
Will Win
Desplat will take this for "The Shape of Water." It's another bit of timelessness from the film.
Music (Original Song)
Nominees
Mighty River
from Mudbound; Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
Mystery Of Love
from Call Me by Your Name; Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
from Coco; Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Stand Up For Something
from Marshall; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
This Is Me
from The Greatest Showman; Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Should Win
"Remember Me" is the only correct answer to this question. I'm not crying, you're crying.
Will Win
"Remember Me." It has to win.
Production Design
Nominees
Beauty And The Beast
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049
Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
Darkest Hour
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Dunkirk
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
The Shape Of Water
Production Design: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin
Should Win
"Blade Runner" invents a seamless new world.
Will Win
"The Shape of Water" shows us new ways to look at our old world.
Visual Effects
Nominees
Blade Runner 2049
John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island
Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
War For The Planet Of The Apes
Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
Should Win
"War for the Planet of the Apes." Caesar and Bad Ape are living, breathing characters brought to life in full CGI.
Will Win
"Blade Runner." It's genuinely breathtaking to look into its multi-layered world.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees
Call Me By Your Name
Screenplay by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist
Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
Molly's Game
Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound
Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Should Win
James Ivory. There's a monologue toward the end that's just so perfect.
Will Win
James Ivory. This is the only one of the nominees with buzz.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees
The Big Sick
Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out
Written by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird
Written by Greta Gerwig
The Shape Of Water
Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Written by Martin McDonagh
Should Win
Easily the hardest category. "Lady Bird" is so beautiful, but "Get Out" has profundity buried in its margins.
Will Win
McDonagh will take it for "Three Billboards." It's too timely not to win.
Best Picture
Nominees
Call Me By Your Name
Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Marco Morabito, Producers
Darkest Hour
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
Dunkirk
Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
Get Out
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele, Producers
Lady Bird
Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O'Neill, Producers
Phantom Thread
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi, Producers
The Post
Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
The Shape Of Water
Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale, Producers
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
Should Win
"Phantom Thread," "Lady Bird" or "Get Out" would all make me very happy.
Will Win
"Three Billboards" seems like the winner, although "The Shape of Water" could be a surprise upset.