According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculations, the unemployment rate in Bend is 9.9%. But what is it really?
Critics have long complained that the BLS number greatly understates the true rate of unemployment. The BLS counts the “underemployed” – people who want to work full-time but are only able to get part-time jobs – as if they were fully employed. And it leaves out “discouraged workers” – those who have simply given up trying to find a job.
In a column in Tuesday’s New York Times, David Leonhardt estimated that while the “official” national unemployment rate in December was 7.2%, the true unemployment rate is probably somewhere north of 13%. Using that rough yardstick, the real unemployment rate in Bend could be pushing 20%.
In Jefferson and Crook Counties the picture is even grimmer: The official rate there is hovering around 12%, which means the real rate could be almost 24%. The statewide rate is 8.1%, according to the BLS.
(Incidentally, can someone explain why, if tourism and destination resorts are such great engines of prosperity, unemployment is always higher and wages are always lower in Central Oregon than in Oregon as a whole?)
The bad news just keeps coming. Word today is that Jeld-Wen, one of the area’s largest private-sector employers, is laying off 51 of the workers at its Bend plant. As a manufacturer of windows and doors, it’s been especially hard hit by the collapse of the housing market and the construction industry.
Silver linings? The Eye can’t see any. But Leonhardt kind of glimpses one, pointing out that the current downturn isn’t as bad as the recession of the early 1980s, when “real” unemployment peaked at over 16%, much less the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the national jobless rate probably reached 30%.
But it doesn’t look like we’ve hit bottom yet, and if history is any guide the bottom in Central Oregon will be deeper and we’ll stay there longer than the rest of the country. It wasn’t until the early 1990s that Bend really began to bounce back from the recession of the early ’80s.
This article appears in Jan 22-28, 2009.
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Looking at the BLS statistics–with U1 thru U6 categories makes it nearly impossible to understand the true nature of employment–and that is exactly what those in government want. Just as in our banking system, national debt totals, budget projections, defense spending and educational systems, to name a few, reporting statistics is an effort to obfuscate, not elucidate. How much do we spend on defense–and what is included and not included? How well is the school system doing at lowering the drop out rate and raising literacy? How big is the national debt and what impact will it have? There are no answers that are simple and clear-cut to any of these questions because if the true nature and depth of the problem was known, there would be rioting in the streets and the people we elected to do the jobs would be out of work. Never give a straight answer and always blame someone else. The name of the game is avoiding responsibility.
I believe the numbers are really much worse / higher since it does not include all of us who have been off the state’s books and no job for years now.
It does not help that business in Bend seems to be very Bias against those of us who are transplants of other states.
I have been out of a job for over THREE years and in every case of applying for a Bend job I have not had ONE business even call me much less bring me in for a interview.
It seems they look at your resume and see how much experience you have and how much money you made when living in a high cost of living state like Ca and simply refuse to hire you yet will hire someone that is not local but not seen as a transplant as long as they had a low paying job.
This is my third bust since coming home from the Army, and lookin’ around at all the folks just hanging out waiting for something to happen, north of twenty percent sounds about right. The U6 is to my observation the most accurate, but unfortunately doesn’t translate (trickle down?) well regional outliers.
The employment problem in Central Oregon reflects a more serious version of the on-going problem for the whole state. It’s fascinating how a really big lack of any kind of suitable employment seems to be a tradition in Oregon. The state’s elected officials seem to be bent on keeping this state in the stone age, no matter who gets elected. Now with the invasion of Hispanics most employers have traded educated, experienced workers in for cheap labor. If you’re planning to move to Oregon, be sure to BYOJ (bring your own job) !
At least “back in the stone age” a guy could go to work in the woods, or a mill…