Last year was a devastating year for avalanche accidents in Central Oregon, with two deaths happening less than two weeks apart in March. The first occurred in Deschutes County at Black Crater, west of Sisters, on March 2 and was the first fatality in the area since 2014. The second avalanche fatality was a Bend snowboarder descending near Paulina Peak in Newberry National Volcanic Monument on March 15.
Following these deaths, the Central Oregon Avalanche Center is expanding its forecast region to include weekend forecasts and midweek snowpack observations at Paulina Peak and Newberry Crater. COAC historically has provided daily avalanche forecasts for the Central Cascades during ski season but just issued its first forecast for the Paulina Peak area last weekend.
“We’ve always wanted to also provide a forecast for Paulina Peak and Newberry Crater,” said Gabriel Coler, the lead forecaster at COAC. “Because there have been avalanche fatalities down there. Since I’ve been in Central Oregon, in the early 2000s, there have been three avalanche fatalities, with the most recent being in 2023.
Issuing a forecast requires a combination of on-the-ground observation by a trained forecaster and localized weather analysis and input. A 2024 Avalanche Alliance award grant given to COAC for the 2024-2025 season allows for this expanded forecasting and provides needed funding for two weather monitoring stations at Paulina Peak. While the majority of backcountry recreators are in the Central Cascades area, Coler said there is a fair amount of motorized traffic — think snowmobiles and snow bikers — at Paulina Peak.
“We’ve always wanted to also provide a forecast for Paulina Peak and Newberry Crater.” — Gabriel Coler
All COAC forecasts are available to the public on the center’s website. It’s a small operation with just one full-time employee — Coler — and a handful of part-time forecasters. But, Coler said, they’re able to do a lot with the small crew, and it’s the only organization providing avalanche information in the area.
“I use their forecasts on a daily basis when I’m going out in the backcountry,” said Chris Reimann, a backcountry skier in Bend. “I’ve used other forecasting services before, in other places, and can say that we have some very, very high-level forecasters working in this region. And they’re really active users of the backcountry themselves, too.”
Reimann said he’s also impressed at COAC’s effort to make avalanche forecasts accessible to entry-level users with only a base level of understanding of the science. “They do a lot of good community work in terms of building backcountry community,” he said. “I honestly can’t speak highly enough of them as an organization.”
As a nonprofit, most of COAC’s funding comes from individual memberships and business sponsors. Dan McGarigle, owner and operator of Pine Mountain Sports, is one of those sponsors and says that the people and vision of COAC are easy to stand behind.
“I use their forecasts on a daily basis when I’m going out in the backcountry.” — Chris Reimann
“They’re really focused on building resources that the entire backcountry community can benefit from,” McGarigle said. “It’s just people looking out for each other and it’s easy for us to get behind them. We know a lot of the people behind the organization and they’re just great folks. The community outreach is something they take sincerely, and they’ve offered more and more resources to the community as they’ve grown.”
And, as the number of people heading into the backcountry rises, so, too, does the need for professional forecasting.
“With the backcountry community in Central Oregon growing every year, we have had an increasing number of close calls…” COAC wrote on its website following the avalanche fatality near Sisters in March of last year.
In addition to avalanche forecasts and snowpack observations, COAC also hosts a monthly “Know Before You Go” talk that’s free to the public, serving as an introduction to avalanche awareness and providing basic concepts and tools for traveling through avalanche terrain. The popular Mt. Bachelor VertFest race, the center’s marquee fundraising event, is planned for Sunday, Feb. 9 next year.
As more people recreate in the backcountry, Coler hopes they will check the forecast in advance but cautions that avalanche forecasting is just one tool for people to use when deciding where and when to go out.
“It is a forecast,” Coler said. “You know, it’s right there in the word. Like the weather forecaster isn’t always right, we’re making our best guess. But it is a tool that’s there for people. That’s the whole point, is for people to use it in their decision making.”
This article appears in Source Weekly December 12, 2024.
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