As the summer engulfs Oregon like a tableside service flambรฉ in a fine dining restaurant, rumors of our precipitous savior, La Niรฑa, are circulating. While a good portion of modern Central Oregonians are agnostic or atheist in most facets of their life, when it comes to outdoor sports, those same heathens are happy to pray for snow. For any pagan snow enthusiast, or just patrons concerned about serial drought, whatever backyard bloodshed sacrifices they’ve been making to the halls of Valhalla (in the privacy of their own overpriced homes) are paying off. Sources say it’s going to be back to back La Niรฑa winters for Bend and the Pacific Northwest. La Niรฑa is, of course, the weather pattern that brings more moistureโand as a consequence, more snow.
Snow worshipers will be happy to hear that according to Climate.gov and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, “As things stand with the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation, neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niรฑa Watch, which means they see La Niรฑa likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter.”
Hooray! Blessed be the fruit.ย
Here’s how the La Niรฑa Watch scale works:
– La Niรฑa Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niรฑo or La Niรฑa conditions within the next six months.
– La Niรฑa Advisory: Issued when El Niรฑo or La Niรฑa conditions are observed and expected to continue.
– La Niรฑa Final Advisory: Issued after El Niรฑo or La Niรฑa conditions have ended.
– La Niรฑa Not Active: ENSO Alert System is not active. Neither El Niรฑo nor La Niรฑa are observed or expected in the coming six months.
If La Niรฑa gifts all her precipitation to us further north, the Southwest will experience further drought. White gold comes at a price.
Here’s how experts decide whether La Niรฑa conditions are present:
– Are the average sea surface temperatures in the Niรฑo-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5ยฐN-5ยฐS, 120ยฐW-170ยฐW) at least 0.5ยฐC (0.9ยฐF) cooler than average in the preceding month?
– Is there an average anomaly of at least -0.5ยฐC persistent or is expected to persist for five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods?
– Is the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific exhibiting changes commonly associated with La Niรฑa, including one or more of the following:
– Stronger than usual easterly trade winds
– An increase in cloudiness and rainfall over Indonesia and a corresponding drop in average surface pressure
– A decrease in cloudiness and rainfall in the eastern tropical Pacific, and an increase in the average surface pressure
Before you get too over the moon about your prayers being answered, remember that when the Northwest is getting precipitation from La Niรฑa, other regions have consequences. The Climate Prediction Center notes La Niรฑa can impact the Atlantic hurricane season by helping make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean, and less conducive in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Five named storms have already affected the Atlantic since July.
In addition, if La Niรฑa gifts all her precipitation to us further north, the Southwest will experience further drought. White gold comes at a price.
Now I lay me down to sleep, hail Mary full of grace, and all that jazz. If you were wise enough to get ahead of the curve on your snow prayers, you should probably start ordering winter recreation goods, too. Gear shortages and what not. What if two feet fall before Christmas and you don’t have the latest and greatest pow skis?! Better get your orders into Santa now.
One more question: If we are all praying for snow, praying to La Niรฑa, does this confirm that God is a girl? Just saying…
This article appears in Best of Central Oregon 2021.
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God is totally a girl. Knew it!
According to Ed Parsons, state meteorologist we are Now going Enso Neutral. Letโs hope this changes, but we may lose our La Niรฑa.