Cannabis News for the New Year

It’s 2025, let’s look at some predictions for the year ahead in cannabis.

Trump Is Going to Fully Legalize Cannabis

Whenever we elect a new president, talk of how “this president is going to take bold action and free the weed” starts up, like some stoner Linus fruitlessly waiting for the Great Pumpkin.

That’s no exception with our own Great Pumpkin, who has never made legalization a tent-pole issue of his campaigns. As a teetotaler, he’s not someone you would expect to embrace such a move anyway, but his words and actions on the matter offer a take that, at times, has been at odds with itself.

When he first ran in 2015, he said it was up to the states to determine if they wanted a recreational cannabis program, while expressing concern over what was then Colorado’s nascent program. (To his credit, he also expressed support for medical cannabis programs.)

Once elected, he chose Jeff Sessions as his attorney general, a longtime prohibitionist. In 2018, Sessions rescinded the Cole memorandum, the Obama era directive that made cannabis a low priority for federal drug enforcement actions.

This election cycle saw Trump leaning in further on legalization, sharing that he supported Florida’s ballot measure to establish a recreational cannabis program. (It failed.) He also posted on social media that he opposed public consumption, and that “no one should grieve a loved one because they died from fentanyl laced marijuana.” Which they should not, and do not, because that is a made-up, non-existent thing.

But one longtime Trump advisor, who serves as a lobbyist for the cannabis industry, doesn’t see cannabis legalization happening during Trump’s second term. “Four years is not long enough to accomplish all the goals we need to do in the cannabis space,” says Bryan Lanza, who does hold out hope for rescheduling.

Which brings us to prediction number two…

Cannabis Is Going to Be Rescheduled

As previously explored here, actions started under the Biden administration could potentially move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III on the Controlled Substances Act as soon as this year.

While not the vastly preferable action of descheduling cannabis altogether, a.k.a. full federal legalization, a reschedule would have numerous benefits, both economic and medical.

It would permit cannabis businesses to have access to banking services that are now denied, such as credit lines, checking accounts and credit card payments, as well as eliminating the dreaded 280E tax code, which forbids tax deductions.

It could also open cannabis sales between states, as well as medical cannabis clinical trials to explore the benefits and risks of cannabis in treating various conditions. This, in turn, could lead to FDA-regulated cannabis drugs being sold through pharmacies.

Hearings on rescheduling begin this month, with a variety of people testifying in favor and against the move. While there is no exact date as to when the rescheduling could be ordered by the judge, testimony concludes in February. It’s reasonable to hope for an announcement by spring.

If it gets rescheduled, it’s a big step toward helping prediction number three…

Oregon’s Cannabis Industry Is Going to Improve

To be clear, for consumers, you would be hard pressed to improve the industry much more than where it stands. Due to an ongoing oversupply issue, cannabis prices remain absurdly low. In August, a report named Oregon as having the cheapest regulated cannabis, with an average price of $199 per ounce. Last month, the OLCC reported that Oregon hit a new low with an average price of $3.57 per gram, or $80 per ounce. (It was $10.50 per gram as recently as 2016.)

Oregon continues, somehow, to maintain a wide range of smaller craft cannabis producers, with offerings including the Sun+Earth Certified organic, sun-grown flowers covered in my last column.

But without the economic benefits and expanded markets that rescheduling would provide, Oregon will continue to see further consolidation. The burden of our oversupply issue could become an economic boon if we were able to sell to other states with regulated programs in need of high-quality, low-priced, top-shelf cannabis products.

Final prediction: Cannabis is going to make the year better for us all.

This article appears in The Source Weekly January 2, 2025.