Ever since Gov. Tom McCall in 1971 encouraged people to come to visit Oregon, “but for heaven’s sake, don’t come here to live,” the state has had a reputation for attempting to control growth and discourage newcomers. The problem with that reputation is that it empowered the anti-development sentiment that left us in the housing crisis we see today. People still came to our “state of excitement” and fell in love with its natural beauty and endeavored to live here — even if the state’s restrictive, anti-sprawl land-use laws and rampant NIMBYism kept housing stock lower than needed for the influx and consequently, housing prices high.
But now, as population numbers reported by the U.S. Census Bureau show two years of population decline in the state, it seems that perhaps Tom McCall’s declaration may be coming true. People are still coming to Oregon to visit, but they’re not staying as much as they once did.
An April report from Travel Oregon saw Oregon in 2022 bringing in even more tourism dollars than before the pandemic: tourism brought in $12.8 billion in 2019; in 2022, that figure had risen to $13.9 billion. That year, 2022, was the same year that Oregon clocked its first decline in Census population numbers. So, folks are coming to the state to visit, but fewer of them are choosing to stay. (It should be noted that Portland State University’s Population Research Center clocked a slight increase in population over the past two years, rather than a slight decrease, per the U.S. Census Bureau.)
Even here in Deschutes County, the number-one county for population growth in the state from 1970 to 2022, according to analysis from the Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project, we saw not a population decline per se, but a knock-off from the top spot for population growth. In 2022, Crook County took top honors for population growth, with a growth rate of 2.42%. Deschutes County’s growth rate at that same time was .58%.
Seeing Oregon’s growth begin to slow is welcome news for about half of the population, according to a survey conducted by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center in March.
“Oregonians are ambivalent about population growth, with one-half (49%) considering it ‘both good and bad’ for the state. Positive associations for population growth include perceived economic development and increased diversity. Negative associations include environmental concerns, lack of affordable housing/overcrowding, and higher cost of living,” reads a summary of OVBC’s survey on population growth.
For those of us already living here, it may be hard to see the negative effects that population decline can reap. Fewer people in our state and region might mean less pressure on housing, and in turn, lowered housing prices and rents. Fewer people on the trails and the roads might mean less stress in moving about. But there is a downside: a rising population over the last several decades has allowed Oregon to grow employment and create jobs for people, and also, to maintain a higher level of government service as tax dollars come in. Would we be willing to trade a little less traffic for the strain of searching longer and harder for that new job? What if lower housing costs come at the expense of a stagnant economy?
Oregonians have been quoting and re-quoting Tom McCall for decades – some in favor of his sentiment; others wary of the drawbridge mentality that came with it. If we stay true to the vision, it’s clear that the cost of living, among many other factors, may mean Oregon’s attractiveness continues to shift.
This article appears in Source Weekly January 4, 2023.
MAKE LOCAL JOURNALISM HAPPEN
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
Growth is going to happen. It is how the City of Bend is going about it which is the problem. It’s nice to have a beautiful city with great restaurants, trendy shops, art, music venues and a ton of creative people here but if you allow developers and builders to build without parameters for affordable housing, it just doesn’t work. Most people can not afford to live in Tetherow, Tree Farm, Discovery West, NWX etc. Our community members of teachers, servers, staff in stores, doctors offices, mail carriers etc. can not afford to live here. We are just creating gentrified neighborhoods and it’s not allowing people to be in diverse community to live, work and play. You can build and they will come but it’s for the wealthy. There are no parameters in place for developers to keep housing affordable. We need deed restricted housing, subsidies and incentives for older folks on limited income to not be forced out of our community, and incentives for first time home buyers to live in any neighborhood here in Bend. The city needs to do better and hold developers and builders accountable.