The time has arrived for the 97th annual Academy Awards, and you have more options than ever to watch them. You can either tune into your local ABC affiliate, stream it live on Hulu or YouTube TV or you can attend the BendFilm Gala and Watch Party (which starts at 3:30pm at the Unitarian church) and help raise money for some of the incredible initiatives being offered this year by the local film fest.
However you decide to watch it (or not watch it at all, like most normal people), I hope you’ll take the time to laugh at me as I once again attempt to prognosticate the winners through my advanced ability of nerd, geek and dork. This is the dozenth or so year I’ve attempted this and, incredibly, do not seem to be getting any better at predicting what Academy voters actually enjoyed (or really just took the time to watch).
I’ll once again divide my guesses into what should win verus what will win. But so many of the nominees this year are movies I genuinely enjoyed, so mostly I’m happy no matter who takes home the little bald man. Let’s get into it.
Actor In A Leading Role
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody. His work in “The Brutalist” is monumental and deserves recognition.
Who Should Win: Brody. But if Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) or Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) took it, I’d be so happy. Fiennes does work unlike any we’ve seen from him before, and Domingo is such a gentle and moving artist that it’s impossible not to root for him.
Actor In A Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin. He builds such a jagged-edged, empathic character in “A Real Pain” that it feels like we’re watching a tightrope walker dance over a bonfire.
Who Should Win: Culkin. He captures something singular in “A Real Pain,” but I sure love Yura Borisov in “Anora.” In many ways, it doesn’t even feel like the movie starts until he shows up.
Actress In A Leading Role
Who Will Win: Demi Moore. The Academy loves a comeback almost as much as it loves a beautiful person under a bunch of prosthetic makeup. Also, “The Substance” is probably the best performance of her career.
Who Should Win: I’m rooting for Moore just because of how much I love “The Substance,” but part of me really hopes Mikey Madison gets the upset for “Anora.” She paints with the entire palate.
Actress In A Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Isabella Rossellini for “Conclave.” She maybe has a dozen lines of dialogue in the entire film yet conveys a thousand years of patriarchal servitude in just a glance.
Who Should Win: Probably Rossellini, but Felicity Jones’ work in “The Brutalist” is for the ages and flawlessly calibrated.
Animated Feature Film
What Will Win: “Flow” — it’s a stunning work of imagination.
What Should Win: “Memoir of a Snail” — an absolute gut punch of (semi) autobiographical storytelling.
Costume Design
Who Will Win: Paul Tazewell for “Wicked.” It’s bright, colorful and eye-catching in the way voters love.
Who Should Win: You can smell the costumes in “Nosferatu” from home.
Directing
Who Will Win: Brady Corbet. His work on “The Brutalist” is massive. Most people aren’t as in love with the film as I am, but I think his work here is legendary.
Who Should Win: Corbet, but I would still be so happy if Sean Baker (“Anora”) or Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”) won. All of their work is seminal.
Documentary Feature Film
What Will Win: “No Other Land” — timely and important.
What Should Win: “No Other Land.” It’s not even close.
Film Editing
Who Will Win: Sean Baker for “Anora.” He built that movie in the editing room.
Who Should Win: Baker’s work is virtuosic, but so is the editing on “Conclave” and “The Brutalist.” Any of these three deserve the win.
International Feature Film
What Will Win: I’m scared France’s “Emilia Pérez” will win, but backlash has been so intense that I think it will go to Germany’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig.”
What Should Win: It doesn’t stand a chance but Denmark’s “The Girl with the Needle” felt like the most groundbreaking to me.
Makeup and Hairstyling
What Will Win: The team behind “Wicked” will take it because the movie became a pop-cultural phenomenon and because they did bracingly original work.
What Should Win: “The Substance” — the work runs the entire table from grotesque
Music (Original Score)
Who Will Win: John Powell and Stephen Schwartz for “Wicked.” People have been humming this movie for months.
Who Should Win: “The Brutalist” has an old-school score like they did back in the 1940s, and “Conclave” builds the entire tone of the film through the score. The real best score of the year is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ work on “Challengers,” which was not nominated.
Music (Original Song)
What Will Win: “Like a Bird.” I think the voters want “Sing Sing” to win something.
What Should Win: “Like a Bird.” I want “Sing Sing” to win something.
Best Picture
What Will Win: It’s either “Anora” or “The Brutalist.” I think “Anora” has the momentum but “The Brutalist” works better as a movie. I think “Anora” wins by a hair.
What Should Win: Anything but “Emilia Pérez.” In my heart, I know that “The Substance” is my favorite but doesn’t stand a chance. “The Brutalist” should win as it’s a monumental work of artistic vision that moves me even just thinking about it. Although, if/when “Anora” wins, I’ll raise a glass to Sean Baker anyway.
Animated Short Film
What Will Win: “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — it’s the kind of metaphorical storytelling the voters love.
What Should Win: “In the Shadow of the Cypress” has the strongest animation.
Cinematography
Who Will Win: Lol Crawley for “The Brutalist.” I felt completely transported to period NYC.
Who Should Win: Crawley — for “The Brutalist” to look as good as it did on such a (relatively) small budget is a minor miracle.
Documentary Short Film
What Will Win: “I Am Ready, Warden” — powerful and thought-provoking.
What Should Win: “Incident,” but “I Am Ready, Warden” is almost as good.
Production Design
What Will Win: “Wicked.” The team behind “Wicked” did some genuinely lovely design here, if a little repetitive.
What Should Win: “Nosferatu.” You can smell the streets from home.
Live Action Short Film
What Will Win: “A Lien” — the topicality is immediate.
What Should Win: “I’m Not a Robot” simply because I helped select it for the BendFilm Festival.
Sound
What Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” will win but “Wicked” could squeak by.
What Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” because there are sounds in this film that have never existed before this brilliant team invented them.
Visual Effects
What Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” — the work with scale here is astonishing.
What Should Win: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.” There are multiple characters in the film that fully command your empathy and they don’t exist outside of a computer.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Who Will Win: Peter Straughan for “Conclave.” He shines light on a world most people don’t know while making it fun and exciting at the same time.
Who Should Win: “Conclave,” but my heart is rooting for “Sing Sing.”
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Who Will Win: Sean Baker for “Anora.” The script is beautiful and, even with the issues I have, is probably the best of his career.
Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance.” She made a primal scream of a feminist masterpiece and buried it inside a fun and disgusting monster movie. A singular work I will never forget.
This article appears in The Source Weekly February 27, 2025.
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