Iย used to be good at predicting the Oscar winners, but every year I get worse as my tastes change and I find myself rooting for the movies that shake up the status quo. I never would have guessed the saccharine “Green Book” or the sexy fish movie “The Shape of Water” would have won, but here we are and I’m ready to try and fail all over again. This year, just to make it harder, I’m going to guess who I think will win vs. who I think should win. Here we go.
Best Motion Picture:
“1917”
“Parasite”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Ford v. Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Marriage Story”
“Little Women”
Should Win: “Parasite” will win Best International, so in a perfect world this would go to “Jojo Rabbit.”
Will Win: The hype is too prevalent on “1917” for that one not to win.
Best Actor:
Antonio Banderasย in “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprioย in “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Adam Driverย in “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenixย in “Joker”
Jonathan Pryceย in “The Two Popes”
Should Win: I wasn’t as in love with “Joker” as most folk, but Phoenix is astounding. I like DiCaprio’s work almost as much.
Will Win: Phoenix has this in the bag unless he does something weird and awful between now and then.
Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanksย in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkinsย in “The Two Popes”
Al Pacinoย in “The Irishman”
Joe Pesciย in “The Irishman”
Brad Pittย in “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Should Win: Pitt made being a badass look effortless.
Will Win: Pesci came back from retirement. The Academy loves that.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivoย in “Harriet”
Scarlett Johanssonย in “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronanย in “Little Women”
Charlize Theronย in “Bombshell”
Renรฉe Zellwegerย in “Judy”
Should Win: Scarlett gives the performance of her career in “Marriage Story.”
Will Win: Zellweger has this one on lock.
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Batesย in “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dernย in “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johanssonย in “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pughย in “Little Women”
Margot Robbieย in “Bombshell”
Should Win: Scarlett is the heart and soul of “Jojo Rabbit”
Will Win: I think Scarlett has this one, unless Pugh gets the upset.
Animated Film:
“How to Train Your Dragon, The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Klaus”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
Should Win: All five films are wonderful, but I absolutely fell in love with “Klaus.”
Will Win: “Toy Story 4” wins it but I’ll go Ape**** if “Missing Link” steals it.
Cinematography:
Rodrigo Prieto, “The Irishman”
Lawrence Sher, “Joker”
Jarin Blaschke, “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins, “1917”
Robert Richardson, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Should Win: Jarin Blaschke made “The Lighthouse” look timeless.
Will Win: I’ll be shocked if Deakins doesn’t get this.
Costume Design:
Jacqueline Durran, “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, “The Irishman”
Mayes C. Rubeo, “Jojo Rabbit”
Mark Bridges, “Joker”
Should Win: Rubeo’s work on “Jojo” is bold and fearless.
Will Win: Durran should have this safely in the bag for her lush work on “Little Women.”
Adapted Screenplay:
Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Steven Zaillian, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, “Joker”
Anthony McCarten, “The Two Popes”
Should Win: Taika Waititi wrote a beautiful film that deserves credit.
Will Win: Waititi all the way. It’s just so good.
Original Screenplay:
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin-won, “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, “1917”
Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson, “Knives Out”
Should Win: As much fun as “Knives Out” is, this belongs to “Parasite.”
Will Win: “Parasite” is a masterpiece and the Academy should recognize that.
Documentary:
“American Factory”ย (Netflix)
“Honeyland”ย (Neon)
“The Cave”ย (National Geographic)
“For Sama”ย (PBS)
“The Edge of Democracy”ย (Netflix)
Should Win: “Honeyland” takes you on a journey to somewhere truly new and remarkable.
Will Win: “American Factory” is more timely and political.
International Feature:
“Pain and Glory” (Spain)
“Honeyland” (North Macedonia)
“Les Misรฉrables” (France)
“Corpus Christi” (Poland)
“Parasite” (South Korea)
Should Win: These are all solid choices, but “Parasite” is the winner here.
Will Win: “Parasite,” without question.
Original Score:
“1917,”ย Thomas Newman
“Marriage Story,” Randyย Newman
“Little Women,”ย Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams
“Joker,” Hildur Gudnadรณttir
Should Win: Desplat’s score for “Little Women” is playful and lovely.
Will Win: Gudnadรณttir’s “Joker” score is much flashier.
Best Director:
Sam Mendes,ย “1917”
Bong Joon Ho,ย “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Martin Scorsese,ย “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips,ย “Joker”
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho for “Parasite.” It’s a landmark achievement.
Will Win: Sam Mendes for “1917.” It’s just so pretty to look at.
This article appears in Feb 5-12, 2020.
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