It has been well documented just how wild the COVID era was for Central Oregon real estate, with unprecedented year-over-year price increases creating a market that has been working to correct itself since 2022. In my article from two issues ago, I highlighted how the national median home sale price has increased by 34% over the past decade (according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), while Bend has seen a 119% increase over that same period. A common rule of thumb in residential real estate is to expect a 3–5% annual growth rate.
If we look at the growth Bend experienced in the five years leading up to COVID, we can get a clearer sense of where our market might be today had it not been for a global pandemic and the resulting migration out of larger cities.
Using Q1 data from 2015 to 2020, Bend showed an average annual growth rate of roughly 7.5% in both median sale price and price per square foot for single-family homes (according to the local Flex MLS).
While still above the national average, this represents a more sustainable pace of growth. If we use that rate as a guide, we can compare where the market is today versus where it might have been under more typical conditions.
Analysis:
Viewed through this lens, the numbers are pretty remarkable. Bend’s market has seen little to no growth—and even a slight decline—over the past four years, but in many ways, it has finally realigned with the trajectory it was on prior to the COVID spike. In March, we saw the lowest days on market (13 days) since May 2024, and inventory levels have settled at 3.4 months of supply, closely mirroring the 3.2 months recorded in March 2019.
Concluding Thoughts:
Of course, this is all hypothetical, and even a 7.5% annual growth rate is still above what’s typical in most markets. That said, the data suggests that Bend’s market is finally catching up to itself and returning to healthier, more sustainable levels. For the first time since the days of masks and virtual happy hours, it feels realistic to expect a period of steady, consistent growth.
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