The Bulletin’s top business story this morning is about how many people are moving into Central Oregon and how many are moving out. Predictably, the spin is upbeat.
“Central Oregon and the state were magnets for residents from across the U.S. in 2008, according to data released this month by three leading moving companies,” reads the story (available by subscription only).
“The moving companies – United Van Lines LLC, Mayflower Transit LLC and Atlas Van Lines LLC – handled 287 moves into Central Oregon and 166 moves out, according to data provided by the companies. That means 63 percent of the business those companies handled in Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties was for people moving here.”
Sounds good, right? But the obvious problem with those numbers is they include only people who hire moving companies – typically the affluent, or those whose companies pay for their moves – and leave out the hundreds (thousands?) who simply load up the Ryder truck or the U-Haul or their own pickup and breeze on outta here in search of greener (or at least different) pastures.
The story quotes Tim Duy, an adjunct professor of economics at the U of O, warning that the region might see a loss of population in 2009: “To what extent are your immigrants going to come from high-priced housing markets, given that those markets aren’t high-priced housing markets anymore? Once the equity is wiped out in California, where is your source of immigrants going to come from?”
But then come some quotes from Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, The Bulletin’s go-to guy whenever it needs somebody to paint a rosy scenario.
“I don’t see us getting to a situation where we’re losing residents,” Lee says. “All that is speculation [about population declines], but there is nothing to back it up in the numbers. If all the jobs evaporated, that would be a game-changer, but net out-migration in 2009 is very dubious.”
And then comes the inevitable “people will keep moving here because we’re so damn special” argument:
“We’re still looking at [population growth] rates that are well above the state average and the national average and every other county in Oregon or across the nation. This area appeals to a lot of people who move here in various stages of life. They are looking for quality of life and lifestyle factors.”
Whatever you say, Roger. But as The Eye has observed before, you can’t eat “lifestyle.” And with Central Oregon unemployment at or near double digits, it seems unlikely that many people will move here in search of a job.
The Eye has heard rumors that Bend already has lost population – maybe as much as 10,000. That seems way over the top. But it would be nice to have some honest numbers.
This article appears in Jan 15-21, 2009.
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Well now that Roger Lee doesn’t think we’ll lose population in 2009, it’s a lock that we WILL lose population in 2009.
I’m sure Roger is a great guy and I’d love to buy him a beer sometime, but based on his track record (judging by his quotes in The Bulletin), he couldn’t forecast his way out of a wet paper bag.
Also, as was noted on BB2, in The Bulletin-world, when someone gives a negative outlook it’s “speculation,” but when it’s positive it’s a “forecast” or “prediction.”
As Bend’s socio-economic dynamic continues its drastic, continued polarization between working poor and wealthy and the “middle-class” becoming almost nonexistent,our population will continue to swell. Bend has been “discovered” by undocumented, illegal immigrants. This trend has been building for several years now and shows no sign of abating. These highly sought -after workers will never be counted in any type of analysis. It seems easy to overlook these non-persons in your speculations, but just like California, Oregon will be flooded by “illegal’ people for many years to come.
I personally have had around 15-20 friend move out of Bend in the last four months because there are NO JOBS here!! I know of one guy who was laid off from his blue-collar job in early November and still hasn’t found a job. With more layoffs happening weekly, it’s only going to get worse. Whether Bend is a great place to live or not (I think it is), is completely irrelevant – people are leaving in droves to other cities and states because there are no jobs available! Simple facts!!! Don’t tell us this town is a mecca when people are moving away in droves – we’re not stupid.
Movement will generally slow with difficulty selling a house. Unlike other Bend recessions, where would one go this time? One just as well be unemployed here as elsewhere. At least here you don’t have to pay a sales-tax, and for that matter no income tax either if unemployed! Our school census is down a small number, but this could be a change in demographics and not represent net out-migration.
We moved from Bend after 20 years but only because of weather (too cold). We are in the Astoria area and I have met 2 other people that moved to here in the last year from Bend, one because of circumstances and the other was transferred here when her company closed their local office. I wish Bend well, all areas are suffering because of the economy.
Roger That: It isn’t Roger Lee’s job to make accurate predictions; it’s his job to encourage development in CO, and to do that he needs to spin rosy scenarios. But The Bulletin doesn’t have to take his word as gospel.
“We moved from Bend after 20 years but only because of weather (too cold). We are in the Astoria area …”
For me, the small-town quality that drew us to Bend 23 years ago has been lost, and we’re sick and tired of the endless winters. Before too many years go by we hope to be moving out too — but not to Astoria (too wet).
Just had to chuckle upon opening the op-ed page of Saturday’s /Bulletin /to find Mike Luckovich’s cartoon slam on People for Ethical Treatment of Animals. Those who root about the bowels of the Internet know BFF as a shorthand for Bush Family Friends, an all inclusive term covering pretty much all of the remaining twenty or so percent of the population that support the AWOL bastard. Not sure that was the intent, but considering the venue, I find it highly appropriate to find a caricature of Bush Family Friends as /chickens/.
Love this week’s cover, especially the angels with machine guns. Pretty much sums up the jew/muslim/christian cult.
O’Owlish Amenheh
(Ten Bears)
“in The Bulletin-world, when someone gives a negative outlook it’s “speculation,” but when it’s positive it’s a “forecast” or “prediction.”
Hmmm. Never noticed that. Good point.
HBM said “and we’re sick and tired of the endless winters”
WTF are you talkin about?
20 yrs it was way more endless winter than now.
When was the last time snow stuck around in town, til April? ’92?
Let alone the -0 temps we use to have.
schralper: I agree the winters don’t seem as harsh as they were 20 years ago, but the problem isn’t the harshness — it’s the LENGTH. It’s typically the middle of June before we get consistently fair, warm weather in Central Oregon. If you like it you’re welcome to stay as long as you want, but I’ve had enough.
BTW we had some zero and near-zero days around Christmas. Have you forgotten already?