The conventional wisdom said that John Kitzhaber, a popular two-term former governor running in a heavily Democratic state, would have a cakewalk to a third term. But suddenly he finds himself in a horse race.
A Survey USA poll released last Friday gives Kitzhaber’s Republican rival, Chris Dudley, a shocking seven-point lead over the ex-governor. The phone survey of 800 Oregonians showed 47% for Dudley and 40% favoring Kitzhaber, with 6% supporting Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson, a possible Progressive Party candidate.
“Among the more distressing findings, Kitzhaber is trailing substantially among men, older voters, and independents,” Jeff Alworth writes on the progressive/Democratic Blue Oregon site. “Worse, Dudley actually has a slight edge in Portland.” (Emphasis in original.)
Alworth speculates that being a political unknown is working to Dudley’s advantage at this point. While Kitzhaber’s record and positions on issues are well-known, he writes, Dudley – a former center for the Portland Trail Blazers and other NBA teams – is “a local celebrity onto whose blank political canvas voters can project generally positive feelings. That will change as Dudley becomes more a political figure and less a former Blazer.”
Oregonian political blogger Jeff Mapes also notes that the survey might have been somewhat skewed in favor of Republicans: 38% of those polled identified themselves as Democrats and 35% as Republicans, but statewide the Democrats hold a 10-point registration edge. Also, Wilson being identified as “Progressive” might have pulled some support away from Kitzhaber.
Despite these caveats, Alworth writes, “there’s no reason to doubt that [the poll is] an accurate snapshot of where the race is now. … Kitzhaber may win this race – but he’s going to have to win it. Dudley is a real candidate, and a real threat.”
He’s a real candidate, all right, But I continue to be troubled by the question of what Dudley really stands for and why he suddenly came out of nowhere – having never held public office of any kind – to run for the biggest job in the state. I’ve already pointed out that he’s enjoyed generous support from deep-pocketed donors; you have to wonder what they expect for their money if their horse wins.
There’s no doubt that Dudley is a personable guy, the kind of guy you’d like to have beer with. But I keep remembering people used to say that about a certain friendly and outgoing Republican who ran for president in 2000.
This article appears in Jun 17-23, 2010.
MAKE LOCAL JOURNALISM HAPPEN
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
I miss him too, HBM.
FYI, Rasmussen had Dudley at 45% and Kitzhaber at 44% (your earlier blog). Perhaps Rasmussen isn’t in the tank for Republicans afterall as your blog intimated.
From your blog that day – “The trouble with putting much stock in a Rasmussen poll is that Rasmussen consistently gives Republican candidates significantly higher numbers than virtually any other polling outfit.”
You continued, “The Daily Kos commented on this phenomenon the other day, claiming that Rasmussen “cares only about setting the narrative that Democrats are doomed” and backing it up with a chart that shows Rasmussen is consistently an outlier among pollsters, typically favoring Republicans by about 5% to 10%.”
The Daily Kos? C’mon. You’re much more credible than that.
Anyway, you were very correct that we’ll only know come election time.
And you might be surprised that I think you are also correct in your second to last paragraph regarding experience (or lack thereof). BTW, you can substitute “Obama” for “Dudley” and come away with the same conclusion. Only replace the “having never held public office of any kind” with “never having held a state wide or federal office of any kind” and replace “the biggest job in the state” with the “biggest job in the country.” Sorry Obama’s 140+ days in the Senate before “quitting” to campaign full time doesn’t really count (as we have seen).
When the dust settles, people will decide between Democrat and Republican, with negligible votes cast for third parties. So the only meaningful poll would be Dudley vs Kitzhaber and nobody else. That one seems by most accounts to be even. Certainly four months before we vote, it’s as good as even, so let the campaigning roll!