Is it just our imagination, or is Bend looking weedier (and seedier) than usual this summer?
A month ago the BendBubble2 blog commented on the proliferation of weeds around town, attributing it to the real estate bust.
“Problem is Bend is hucked-full of empty houses,” wrote “I Hate to Burst Your Bubble.” “These things aren’t getting minimal maintenance, they’re getting none. And you’d think that after a long, cold winter, things would brighten, and all would be well, and that at the very least, the landscape here would ‘stage’ itself. After all, many front yards are meant to mirror desert scrub. But it’s not working out that way.”
IHTBYB proves his point by posting a bunch of photos of really butt-ugly weed-filled yards (plus a lot of colorful, funny and obscene comments).
Why can’t the city do something about all this unsightly – and potentially dangerous – overgrowth that threatens to make Bend look like some 1930s Oklahoma dust bowl town? We spoke with Bend Deputy Fire Chief Gary Marshall to get the straight skinny.
The city has an ordinance requiring property owners to cut down weeds if they become a fire hazard, he explained. The problem, as always, is money.
If the fire department finds high weeds growing within 10 feet of any building, tree or fence it will give the property owner 14 days to cut them down, Marshall said. If the weeds are still not cut after two weeks the owner generally will get “a few more days” to do it.
Finally, the fire department can ask the city public works department to send out a crew to cut the weeds and bill the property owner for the work. The city also can slap the owner with a $250 fine, Marshall said. Trouble is, budget cuts resulting from the real estate collapse mean there aren’t enough city crews to get the job done.
There’s another problem, Marshall said: “We have so many property owners that don’t live in the state. We send them certified letters [telling them to cut their weeds] and we don’t get a reply. We really have no way to go after these people.”
The Eye has no way of knowing how many of those out-of-state weed scofflaws are former real estate “investors” (aka speculators, aka flippers) who just took off for points south, north, west and east when the Bend market went belly-up – but we suspect there are more than a few.
Anyway, if you spot a weed problem you can call the city’s weed control hotline, 541-317-3002, Ext. 3. Good luck.
This article appears in Aug 7-13, 2008.
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Again the Eye ball with the black cloud hovering over it is looking for the negative…..How do you get out of bed in the morning? You must be a real charmer to hold a conversation with, someone please hand my the knife so I can cut my throat…BLAH BLAH BLAH. I challenge you Black Cloud EYE ball to make some progress in evolution and be a nice person and try to find something good to report!
What about lawn gnomes? They must feel neglected.
Re: I challenge you Black Cloud EYE ball to make some progress in evolution and be a nice person and try to find something good to report!
Yep–you wouldn’t want to report reality. At least the kind I see here in my neighborhood above Old Mill.
When I find some good news about the real estate market to report, I’ll report it. In the meantime I’m not going to pretend everything’s coming up roses and buttercups. Denying reality got us into this mess and continuing to deny reality is not going to get us out of it.
Keep up the good work HBM, you finally seem to see that the only way we can ‘fix’ Bend is to admit that it’s broke.
Bendite, keep watching the mailbox, your real estate commission check is in the mail.
bendbubble.blogspot.com for the real history of Bend
For years I have likened Bend to the ‘AA’ program, you can’t fix a problem, until you admit you have a problem.
Some in Bend would say the only problem is that they’re not getting rich anymore. Nobody was ever getting rich it was all easy-debt that rose the water in the pond. Now all that easy-debt has gone dry, and the pond bottom will soon be seen.
The after-math of the ‘great bend-bubble’ will be poverty, ten’s of thousands of empty rotting homes, and unemployment. The few that will stay will be paying for the party for years to come.
Modern politics is all about deferring the inevitable, and when it does come the chant is always “Who would have guessed”.
Bendover: I’ve known it was broke for some time but too many people here are still in denial and they get angry at those of us who challenge their delusion.
I guess the first time I realized it was seriously broke was back in May or June of 2006 when a couple from Portland — complete strangers to me — stopped me as I was walking along Wall Street, said they were looking to buy 10 houses in Bend for “investment” (i.e. speculation) purposes and asked me where they should buy.
“Prineville,” I said.
The incident reminded me of the perhaps apocryphal anecdote about Bernard Baruch, who supposedly was on his way to his office one morning in October 1929, stopped at his usual shoeshine stand for a shine, and had the shoeshine boy give him a stock tip. Baruch called his broker as soon as he got to his office and told him to unload all his stock, figuring that when shoeshine boys were giving out stock tips it meant the bubble was about to pop. Same thing when people stop total strangers on the street in Bend and ask them where to buy real estate.
Bendite- what kind of good news would you like to hear, Oh the sun is up and everything is perfect in Bend. You do not want to here the truth because you are hidding from reality. Or, you are one of the 25% that will probably vote yes for measure 59, which in that case, shame on you.
Did we call it or did we call it? No sooner did the city council enact the welfare-for-builders program (SDC deferral) last week than The Bulletin is editorializing today in favor making it PERMANENT.
Of course COBA and its shameless shills at The Bulletin would like nothing better than to abolish SDCs entirely and make the taxpayers foot the whole cost of infrastructure required by new development. It’s the right-wing way: Privatize the profits, socialize the costs.
HBM,
I completely agree with the Baruch analogy. I have read all his books.
For me I always knew the bend-bubble was a mirage and hype being here since early 1960’s. I knew the Bubble was over in August 2006, that was the announcement of the Shire, it sent a shock around the around that Little Bend-Oregon had gone completely nuts.
Quite a few of my ‘rich’ friends from PDX came over to Bend in 2004, and put their life savings into BEND RE, and now they ain’t rich anymore.
BENDITE: When things in Bend start being nice again I’ll be the first to write about it.
HBM, What do you think about the idea of allowing a new blog here called ‘bendbubble’ where people can freely discuss Bend RE, so long as there is no vulgarity?? As you know the blogs are being shutdown, and there will soon be no arena in Bend to freely discuss what’s happening to “OUR” town. I really think that the Source is already all too aware of the changing tide, perhaps 1-2 years ahead of the Bulletin, the majority of our citizens know something is very-very wrong in this town. Do you think that Aaron or whomever would allow a blog here called ‘bendbubble’ where the more active people who write about Bend can come and write, and share comments? and rumors can be validated?
Do you have any suggestions of an electronic forum in Bend where this can be done, where its NOT controlled by the Bend Real Estate industry.
Did we call it or did we call it? No sooner did the city council enact the welfare-for-builders program (SDC deferral) last week than The Bulletin is editorializing today in favor making it PERMANENT.
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It was subsidized SDC’s, now its completely free. This town is being bankrupted at light-speed, because Brooks Resources has bankrupted itself.
It’s really crazy that all of us that didn’t play ( house flipping/easy money ) get the bill.
It’s far more worse than “Privatize profit, Socialize loss”. It’s ‘privatize profit, and enslave the taxpayer’ forever.
Brooks Resources blames Bend for what it has become, they control the Bulletin given they own the land the BULL sits on.
Brooks has from 10 ( local ) to 30 ( prineville north ) years of inventory. The ‘best in 20 years was a flop’ and now its FREE SDC’s. Their only hope is a new wave of idiot builders come to Bend to buy Brooks raw land for cash. I personally don’t think that FREE SDC’s will bring cash to this town. It’s over. Bend can’t count on stupid money coming here anymore, now its rob the taxpayer.
In the past few years Bend city-hall has been ran by HOA collectors, and next term its all lawyers running. We’re going to be a town of folks suing each other for years to come.
Brooks drank their own kool-aide, and now having bankrupted themselves, they’re going to force it on to all of us.
“HBM, What do you think about the idea of allowing a new blog here called ‘bendbubble’ where people can freely discuss Bend RE, so long as there is no vulgarity??”
That would be up to Aaron, not me. But if it was my decision I would say the subject doesn’t have general interest and therefore would not warrant its own blog.
“As you know the blogs are being shutdown …”
No, I don’t know that. Anybody can start a blog.
There’s never been a better time to buy!
“When good news about the market hits the front page of the New York Times, sell.” — Bernard Baruch
“When bad news about the real estate market hits the pages of The Bulletin, it’s too late to sell.” — Miller’s Corollary
DRUDGE REPORT: “#1 in appreciation=#2 in overvalued=3 developer suicides”
Bend, Oregon, considered one of the nicest small cities in America, has seen a rash of suspicious deaths in the last month. None have been followed up in the local media, yet the local blogosphere has been rife with speculation of multiple suicides, or even the possibility of “mob hits”.
With Billions of dollars on the line in a city of 75,000 with as many as 5000 unnecessary homes, tensions have been increasing between the real estate/developer contingent that controls City Hall, and regular citizens that are more concerned about infrastructure and jobs.
Most recently, the City Council agreed to defer System Develpment Charges that pay for roads, sewers, and the like until a developer actually sells the building and needs an occupancy permit. Critics state that actual deferrals could stretch out as long a two years, bankrupting a city with only 1-2 months of reserves in all departments.
Real estate interests continue to insist that a turnaround is coming by or before spring, 2009. Latest monthly sales continue at approximately 25% of peak volumes.
There is also some dissension, even among the council members, over a 6% fee to be payed to Juniper Ridge Partners, the small company one on the outs with the City that worked with Cooper-Robertson on the planned residential/mixed use/employment lands development north of the city.
This development, which the city is counting on for several million dollars in revenue this fall, is currently on hold because of access issues off State Hwy 97. The failing intersection at Cooley Rd. and Hwy 97 has caused ODOT to refuse permission for continuing development.
A several month-long multi-party process for deciding on a mid-term fix played out last year, but this plan has been shelved due to lack of the necessary $40 million in funding. ODOT meets in Bend on Aug. 20-21 when the issue of a waiver will be decided. ODOT sources are hesitant to predict the approval of such a precedent-setting decision.
The 6% payments to JRP will be in return for a vague list of “assistance” services to the City to be performed by JRP, . It will apply to land sold by the City, and JRP will get a 6% discount from the appraised value of any land it buys with it’s 50 acre option.
With another SDC deferral, this time for the school district, plus a $400,000 proposal to create an in-house legal division on the agenda of the first August City Council session, tensions are expected to get even higher at the next city council meeting. If the latest monthly budget update shows continuing declines in revenues in all funds, local citizens may become increasingly critical of city staff decisions being rubber stamped by the Council.
Drudge Report on Bend | 08.11.08 – 7:52 am | #
For the record for TSW readers the Bendbubble2.blogspot.com is no more, while it will still be present. The site was shutdown by city-hall and Bend Realtors this week.
Loyal followers of IHTBYB have formed Bendbubble3.blogspot.com to continue a free and open debate on Bends over building real estate crisis and our impending bankruptcy of the city.
“As you know the blogs are being shutdown …”
No, I don’t know that. Anybody can start a blog.
…
I’ll try to form coherent english. The pulldown for this site is the ‘eye’ and ‘blender’ could you would you add ‘bendbubble’ a free form where people could discuss in the Republicans of Bend and their mad rush to bankrupt the city?
I concur that any idiot in Bend can start a blog. The problem is that to date this town has been all Real Estate cheer leading. I think it would be good that the source had an open blog, that didn’t reflect the opinion of the owners but still let the readers tell both sides of the Bend-Bubble story.
No problem either way. Just a suggestion, as the ‘eye’ has its eye on a lot of subjects, while bend-bubble watchers have our eye only on those who want to bankrupt the city and rob the taxpayer.
Those of us that didn’t play Real-Estate-Flip are going to pay when this bubble pops. It did so two years ago, but in slow motion it will continue to deflate, and city-hall/staff will do whatever it can to save its own beautiful people, at the expense of the taxpayer.
Fact of the matter is if you purchased a home 2004 or earlier you are in good shape. If you purchased 2005, 2006 or 2007 you are in trouble. Greed will get you if you let it. Greed is only good if you control the greed doesnâ ™t control you. People got caught up in the hype and they are paying the price now. Roll back to 2005 and suddenly you CAN keep up with the Jonesâ ™, hell you can make them look like you just got that promotion that you didnâ ™t deserve. Money avaliable for everyone! No money down! Hell We’ll make it intrest only! The source of this money train is the start to the problem.
Bottom line is that anyone who bought a house with the conventional loan process (not the crazy no money down because you get instant free equity) before 2005 is just fine. But the people that are complaining are the ones that did something stupid. This market will shake out just like every other one, free and open markets will always come back to a sustainable level.
So tell me what is so bad? Speculators can’t sell? Thatâ ™s part of the risk. Individuals can’t sell their overpriced houses with no equity? So what. If you make a bad choice you pay the price. Looking for someone to bail you out? It’s not going to happen. Over zealous builders buying more land on greed, see ya! Most of the builders that I know SAVED money while the boom was on and are have great vacations now. Weeds? They will be gone along with the greedy builders and dumb ass buyers that thought that they could get something for nothing.
The rest of us are sitting pretty. And the EYE has a Black Cloud hovering close by⠦⠦.
“There’s never been a better time to buy!”
The problem is most people who want to buy have to sell first, and they can’t. It’s a classic Catch 22.
Instead of giving builders loans at $14,000 per house, maybe the city should give qualified first-time buyers loans of up to $14,000 toward their down payment on a home of $300,000 or less. Then we might generate some demand-push at the bottom end of the market that would break the logjam and get the market moving again.
Of course that will never fly because this is AMERICA and we don’t believe in trickle-up economics — only the dribble-down kind.
Instead of giving builders loans at $14,000 per house, maybe the city should give qualified first-time buyers loans of up to $14,000 toward their down payment on a home of $300,000 or less. Then we might generate some demand-push at the bottom end of the market that would break the logjam and get the market moving again.- hbm
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I see your humor HBM, but that is exactly what transpired post 911, it was called ‘zero down’, the government in effect through implicit guarantees to investors paid the down-payment. That is what financed the Bend bubble.
The real problem with SDC’s is the actual cost of each STD ( siberian tract home ) is over $60k, during the boom ten’s of thousands were built and a little less than $10k collect, which means that $50k was lost to the city for say 20k homes, which is a billion dollars, in fact it was more. What was lost? Sewers for the future, schools, infrastructure. A billion dollars lost, where did it go? Profits, profits to Bends one company town builder. Who then turned around and plowed those profits into developments north of Redmond, near Madras, and all around Prineville. Today at the current rate of sales we’re looking at near 30 years of inventory.
Given that implicit down payment is what caused the bubble, throwing more fuel to the fire only postpones the collapse. Even now its clear with the permanent interest free waiver of SDC’s that the city wants more building exactly what is not needed, what is needed is inventory reduction.
Then there is the 2nd home problem, where most homes in Bend were bought by Californian’s as 2nd homes for retirement, or recreation. That notion is now idle. Most of Bends newcomer know all too well that its better to rent in Bend, as its a better deal.
The BendBubble was engineered.
1.) Cheap easy money, no-down payment by the BushTribe.
2.) City-Hall subsidizing SDC’s, to maximize developer profit ( 1998->present )
3.) COVA/COBA/DVA city-hall PR&MARKETING: made Bend the #1 appreciation in the USA,
Today we’re the #1 in foreclosure, and developer suicide. That said the bend-bubble de-flation hasn’t even started. Todays median is below $280k, its will be $160k next year. Already today we’re near 4X income, its a great time to buy if you have 20% down, problem is job loss, and falling income.
If the city gave away down-payments all that would do is bring back zero-down, which we already know causes walk-away. History shows that 20-30% down is what keeps homeowners as homeowners in the long term. That is what we want right?
The #1 thing BEND needs today is a moratorium on new disposable housing.
“I see your humor HBM, but that is exactly what transpired post 911, it was called ‘zero down'”
Not exactly — I said QUALIFIED buyers. That means buyers with good credit and enough income (real, verified income, not claimed income) to make their mortgage payments. The bubble was caused (in part) by lenders giving zero-down loans to anybody who could fog a mirror.
“I see your humor HBM, but that is exactly what transpired post 911, it was called ‘zero down'”
Not exactly — I said QUALIFIED buyers. That means buyers with good credit and enough income (real, verified income, not claimed income) to make their mortgage payments. The bubble was caused (in part) by lenders giving zero-down loans to anybody who could fog a mirror.
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2 or 3 years ago I had this debate with the blog-heads, and they told me I was full of poop. The argument went, “When the bubble is over, we’re going back to max of 4X of income you can borrow, and 20% down, and good credit ( 700 fico or better ); That be ‘qualified’ HBM, now I have just knocked 95% of ‘first-time’ buyers out of the market.
The trouble is the BEND HOME market is over-sold, all that could buy did buy. Like down in CALI, the reason they’re not buying here is they can’t sell, and the reason they can’t sell is they can’t find a ‘qualified’ buyer. Now the bank actually requires 80% max LTV, 20% down, good credit, and income, and proof of down source. That is ‘qualified’ these people don’t exist except in the 3% fringe.
All that could buy did buy, and now most want out, at 70% its going to take years to get back to 50% home-ownership, so many people are going to be hurt on this over-sale of high desert crap shacks that for a generation folks aren’t going want to own a high desert disposable crap-shack ( STD ).
It’s clear the present trend is that the taxpayer is to get saddled with lots of Brooks Resource Crap-Shacks, then the city really can go into the low-income housing business as it has always wished.
I know that these new deferred SDC’s units will not sell, they’ll foreclose the good city will go into the property biz, don’t laugh PDX has been doing this for years, its called “Reach”, or “Portland Development Commission”. The powers in Bend would like nothing more than to indirectly have city purchase all the excess inventory. The liberals will salivate, and the right-wing will profit. Chomsky calls it ‘manufacturing consent’.
This current handout or corporate welfare of Permanent SDC’s to be given to Brooks Resources and championed by the BULLetin ( Brooks gave them their land in 1998 ) is illogical.
I can see why liberals in Bend want to expand low-income housing.
The only logic I see given that this is a one company town, and all is done on behalf of Brooks Resources is that Brooks owns a ton of land. Their flat ass broke from investing 100’s millions into remote central Oregon housing, they need cash flow.
The logic is if the city of Bend gives SDC’s for free, builders all over the country will rush here, and buy land from Brooks which starts a new builder gold-rush, trouble is nobody will buy those STD crap-shacks, but nobody cares, Brooks gets CASH by selling high-desert land that it paid for virtually zero by the fact that its all historical Shevlin-Hixson Mill town land that Hollern inherited years ago.
During the last economic Bend collapse HOLLERN almost went down over Black-Butte, he was CASH poor and land rich. Today its the same, but insult to injury he’s sitting on 1,000’s of unsaleable STD crap-shacks all over central-oregon rotting in the sun.
It’s one company town, and that company controls city-hall, COBA, COVA, EDCO and every acronym in Bend. What’s good for Brooks is good for Bend, and this weeks its waive the SDC and get the building boom going, which means that folks come in from abroad and buy over priced lots from Brooks. That cash will hold them over.
Will it work? NO, not this time, Brooks survived last time because they were sitting on land that couldn’t be sold and no cash-flow, now they’re sitting on 100’s millions of dollars of depreciating housing, and no cash-flow, the new scenario is 1000X worse than 1983.
The City of Bend, and the one Company town has fell off the wall, and all the corporate-welfare ain’t going to put it back again, or put it back together again.
The FUBAR this time was simply too big, and too terminally stoopid. The blog-heads are fond of saying that Bend elite drank their own kool-aide, certainly there is no bigger argument for the loss of billions of dollars of good money.