MAKE LOCAL JOURNALISM HAPPEN
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
Shrinkage Isn't Always a Bad Thing
So the local daily rag reports this morning that, for the first time in 22 years, overall enrollment in Bend-LaPine schools is expected not to
Leave a comment
HB–
What you’re talking about is a scenario that would lead to a Detroit (MI not OR) or New Orleans style economic meltdown from which there would be no recovery. Losing 40% of the population would not result in a more livable community–just a community where fewer people live and the ones remaining are the ones who cannot escape. Imagine a third of Bend’s populace disappearing–what kind of community would be left behind? What kind of a community would it be able to sustain?
The local boosters who advocated for unlimited growth and created the illusion that Bend was on its way to becoming the(choose one, or more, or all): economic; cultural; educational; recreational; retirement; manufacturing hub of the state, North West, US of A! They knew it wasn’t true but also knew it was a way of riding the wave of excess Americans were living and making their own windfall profits from it.
Well–it’s a massive downturn–again! You’re right, the local economy is not recovery’ stream yet. But it will get there. When it does, hopefully an older but wiser local citizenry will have learned something. That’s probably wishful thinking, though. There will probably be another cycle of boom and bust and the Cassandra’s will be just as ignored as they always have been and the wailing and gnashing of teeth will once again be heard from beyond the walls.
Stephen Cramer: Sometimes I deliberately write outrageous things to provoke discussion. Of course losing 40% of our population rapidly would be a very bad thing. I don’t want it to happen, and I don’t think it will happen (no matter what the Greek chorus at BB2 says).
The larger point is this: Bend’s “leaders” have always operated on the premise that the optimum size for Bend is “as big as possible” and the best way to get there is “as fast as possible.” What if we question that premise? What if we do some sophisticated analysis — or hire somebody to do it — and figure out what’s the optimum population for our area, i.e. the maximum it can reasonably sustain at a reasonably prosperous level, given our resources, advantages and disadvantages? What that number is I don’t know, but it’s obviously not 80,000, much less 100,000 or 200,000.
Ashland grew at a lower rate not because of growth planning, however. I am sure there were many in Ashland who were watching what was occuring here with eyes of green and wondered how they could participate.
Now they realize how lucky they were–and it was a matter of luck–they didn’t have the self aggrandizing jerks in charge of the city council, chamber of commerce, planning and development, tourism board, etc.
The schadenfreude crowd at bb2 will always look for the cloud inside the silver lining.
“Now they realize how lucky they were–and it was a matter of luck–they didn’t have the self aggrandizing jerks in charge of the city council, chamber of commerce, planning and development, tourism board, etc.”
I don’t think it was all a mater of luck. Folks in Ashland elect their city council, after all, just as we elect ours. Ashland could have annexed vast tracts of unincorporated land, expanded its UGB and encouraged frenzied growth just like Bend did, but it didn’t. The citizens wouldn’t have stood for it.
Remember a few years back when the boom was at its height and I wrote a story about Walla Walla and the “Don’t Bend Walla Walla” campaign? People there didn’t want their town to become another Bend any more than people in Ashland did — or do.
What’s the difference? Well, for one thing, communities whose economies are based on natural resource extraction tend to have a boom-and-bust growth pattern. Walla Walla and Ashland have never had that kind of economy; theirs have been based on agriculture and, more recently, education. (Ashland has a four-year college and Walla Walla has a couple of them.) But Bend as a logging town had a resource-extraction economy, and we have had a boom-or-bust mentality ever since. The conventional wisdom here is that if the town isn’t experiencing balls-out, pedal-to-the-metal growth, it will die on the vine. The idea of a steady, sustainable economy is almost incomprehensible.
Quite a few years ago I worked for Democrat Pete Pedone in his campaign for Deschutes County commissioner against the late Barry Slaughter. Pedone ran on a platform of more intelligently managing growth. Slaughter, with plenty of realtor and developer money behind him (of course), hired an ad firm that came up with a series of spots showing an empty lunch box. Message: If you elect Pedone he’s going to slow down growth, which will kill the economy, which will put you out of work. Slaughter won by a huge margin, naturally.
Maybe our latest boom-and-bust experience would make it possible for somebody to win on a platform like Pedone’s, but I’m not convinced most people here have learned much from it.
Wouldn’t it be nice?
Last night the ‘local’ news channel, Faux, had a puff piece about Juniper Ridge. There was our city council and the ‘project planner’ inspecting the junipered scrub and talking about the required infrastructure planning and construction that was going to bring in ‘thousands’ of new jobs.
Barram and the rest had the nerve to talk about how important it was to prepare for the anticipated influx of jobs to the Juniper Ridge area. Did all of the empty industrial real estate suddenly fill since I last looked? While the city planning department and council are trying to evict tenants at the airport they are planning to bring in businesses to an environment which is actually hostile to those businesses. Of course the businesses coming with those ‘thousands’ of jobs will receive tax incentives and other perks at the public’s expense, I am sure.
I do remember the Walla Walla piece. Ashland’s experience may or may not be relevant. Was there an anti-growth movement that fielded candidates? Did the council actually assume a limited growth position? How big is the Ashland UGB and when was it last expanded. It would make an interesting story. Would the Ashlander’s have tolerated a strategy and policies that would have enriched them (that was the motive here, correctly or incorrectly) and led to substantial growth–we’ll never know. I don’t think human nature in Ashland is any different than that we have here. The opportunity is gone, now, and it is easy to claim that the people in Ashland listened to their better angels than baser instincts and just missed the accelerated opportunity that was Bend for a few years. Long time Bendites exhibit the same smug superiority about recent transplants that the Ashland realtor had. It doesn’t mean they didn’t wish they could have participated if they could have.
Events moved quickly–too fast and furious. Time for everyone to take a breath and slow down–including our self deluded council. Self promotion is wrong headed when it can’t deliver on any of its promises or claims.
“Ashland’s experience may or may not be relevant. Was there an anti-growth movement that fielded candidates? Did the council actually assume a limited growth position? How big is the Ashland UGB and when was it last expanded.”
All good questions to which I unfortunately have no answers. But since Ashland covers only 6.5 square miles it can’t have expanded its UGB very much.
“I don’t think human nature in Ashland is any different than that we have here.”
Human nature may be the same, but human political behavior differs widely. Otherwise Massachusetts would be electing the same kind of politicians as South Carolina.
As an outsider looking in … I’d say don’t skimp on the police department as you downsize. The “Detroit (MI not OR) or New Orleans” happened because people started doing bad (destructive or self-destructive) thing in empty buildings.