The swine flu situation in Deschutes County is more serious than the local news media so far have reported, judging by an e-mail County Communicable Disease Manager Shannon Dames sent to health care professionals today.
Under the subject line “H1N1 Cases are way up!” Dames’s e-mail states:
“I am sure this is not news to you, given what you are seeing in your own clinics, but to be sure we are all in the loop:
- Schools are seeing higher absentee rates – some up to 25%
- The Bend and Redmond emergency rooms are packed – 44 ILI [influenza-like illness] admissions in two days early this week, and 22 positive results [for H1N1 flu] from the State lab.
- We are getting reports that staffing [has] become a concern at some of our medical locations with people having to leave due to onset of ILI.”
In answer to the question of “when will we see more vaccine,” Dames advises doctors: “Each week we get a small supply, we should be seeing saturation of our highest priority groups in about 4-6 weeks based on our best conservative guesses, which means you will have more supply for your patient population then. Probably good to tell your patients that keep clogging up phone lines to wait a month and call back then.”
But after a month, according to the e-mail, the worst of the current wave of swine flu should be over.
“We fully expect that there will be 3 waves to this pandemic, each about 6 weeks long,” Dames writes. “This would be the second wave (which is historically the worst) and we should be about 2-3 weeks in. All this [is] to say we should be close to a climax very soon, if not already, and should be on our way to recovery in the second wave. We will then have a little breather between waves (as we continue rushing to get people vaccinated), and will be ready for wave three either late 2009 or early 2010.”
The antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza can ease flu symptoms if taken early, but they’re rather hard to get too, according to Dames. “We are hearing that it can take a few phone calls to find antiviral, but they are out there, and the locations that have them are changing more frequently than we can track,” she wrote.
Dames told The Eye that her department is “hoping to saturate the community with vaccination right near the end of Wave 2,” so relatively few people will remain unvaccinated when Wave 3 arrives.
But in the meantime, while Wave 2 is still underway, a lot of people in Deschutes County are not going to be able to get vaccinated. Health care professionals who are often exposed to sick people – for example, emergency room personnel – are at the top of the priority list, and there’s very little vaccine left over for anybody else.
There’s some H1N1 vaccine out there, Dames said, but getting hold of it is a crap shoot: “Some people are getting their hands on that vaccine, and it is more luck than strategy.”
Dames said her office will put out a press release to let people know as soon as enough vaccine becomes available for the general population.
This article appears in Oct 15-21, 2009.
MAKE LOCAL JOURNALISM HAPPEN
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
It’s in the schools, but not on the website. Nice disclosures BLP Schools
I guess they don’t want to panic parents. Since there’s no vaccine available except for the top priority people, there isn’t a damn thing they can do about it anyway short of closing the schools.
I think a better target for bitching is the CDC and the drug companies. They had almost a year to get ready for this and they blew it. From Big Pharma’s point of view I guess it wasn’t as high a priority as getting another erectile dysfunction remedy on the market.
Guess that is why the FDA did not approve a new vaccine till September 15th., and the CDC has said that no vaccine will truely protect against the virus, nor is H1N1 anymore dangerous then other flu’s.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090915/ap_on_he_me/us_med_swine_flu
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/key_facts.htm
Your awfully quick to blame “Big Pharma”.
I also wonder why they are closing achools back East while here in La Pine 25% of the chidren are infected, and the schools are still open.
Must be “Big Pharma’s” fault, not the school administration.
“nor is H1N1 anymore dangerous then other flu’s.”
Apparently not. But the odd thing about it is that it seems to be more dangerous to kids and young adults than to the elderly, which is the opposite of “normal” flu.
Also, regular seasonal flu kills approx. 35,000 people a year in the US. So if H1N1 is “no worse” we’re talking about 70,000 deaths total (35,000 from “normal” flu, 35,000 from swine flu). Not something to take lightly.
Looking at it another way, your odds of getting killed by the flu are double this year.
Funny thing about all that, EVERYBODY has the “swine flu”, and nobody has the “regular” flu.
Well, tests have shown that only about 20% actually have the H1N1 virus.
The reason why the elderly are not at as much risk is that many have already had that particular virus from the 70’s. If one does have some kind of underlying illness then of course it is more dangerous. Children under 6 months have no immune system up, and running, and pregnant women have a lowered immune system. So, those are the three primary groups that one should be concerned about. Basically, children under the age of three, pregnant women, and people with underlying illnesses.
I don’t think you can just double the number in this situation. Many who would have gotten the “regular flu” will get the “swine flu” instead. In any event, once this cycle is over the worse is presumably past, and it does not appear that it will be the pandemic many were predicting, and certainly not the same as the one in the 70’s.
Wash your hands often, use the “bow” system when meeting others, stay out of large crowds, and avoid anyone sneezing.
“use the “bow” system when meeting others”
I heartily agree!
“it does not appear that it will be the pandemic many were predicting”
It’s a pandemic (worldwide epidemic), just not a virulent one. Or not as virulent as once feared. Apparently.
“Many who would have gotten the “regular flu” will get the “swine flu” instead.”
No reason you can’t get both. Having one doesn’t confer immunity to the other.
Flu Vaccine —
Meet Desiree Jennings — She might save your life!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2wzUD5yy2s
Unfortunately, Desiree will have a lot of company this year with all the OVER VACCINATING of adults and children.
“Unfortunately, Desiree will have a lot of company this year with all the OVER VACCINATING of adults and children.”
Yeah, right. Millions and millions of people get flu vaccine every year and we get one case like this and people like you try to use it to spread irrational panic.
FYI, complications from the flu — ordinary flu, not swine flu — kill about 35,000 Americans every year. Your odds of dying because of the flu are millions of times greater than your odds of dying or suffering serious health consequences because of a flu shot.
Furthermore, if you’re a “seasoned nurse” I’m Louis Pasteur.
If you want to worry about health issues you should be worrying about the lethal drugs that the FDA allows on the market without adequate testing and the contamination of our food supply by bacteria such as E. coli and salmonella. You have a far greater chance of being killed by a hamburger than by a flu shot.
Why isn’t mainstream news carrying the expose that “getting the seasonal flu shot may double swine flu risk”? Likely this is true because most physicians don’t even know how to recognize swine flu until after the patient has died! Then this socialist government refuses to give the swine flu vaccine to seniors 65+ so are they guaranteed contracting swine flu because their doctor pushed the seasonal flu vaccine on them? Hmmmm sounds more like euthanasia to me.
“Why isn’t mainstream news carrying the expose that “getting the seasonal flu shot may double swine flu risk”?”
Because there’s no evidence for that other than one unconfirmed and questionable report from Canada. The CDC and WHO say they’ve seen no evidence for this.
Of course you no doubt consider them “socialist” organizations, so you won’t believe them.
“Then this socialist government refuses to give the swine flu vaccine to seniors 65+ so are they guaranteed contracting swine flu because their doctor pushed the seasonal flu vaccine on them?”
My god, you are the very definition of “paranoid.”
The “socialist government” isn’t “refusing” to give the vaccine to anybody, but there’s a limited supply and the top priority groups have to get it first. Also, it’s likely that older people have some immunity to the current swine flu because of exposure to similar flu strains in the past, such as in 1976 and 1968.
You need a new tinfoil hat, Winston — your old one is leaking.
Funny how the swine flu has brought all the anti-vaccination nut cases out of the woodwork. The swine flu vaccine was made by the same process that all flu vaccines are made; it’s a process that’s been in use for decades. You’d think if tens of thousands of people were getting killed or crippled by flu vaccines we would have heard about it by now.
Back when Jenner started vaccinating people against smallpox it triggered the same sort of irrational fears. But there’s less excuse for it today because vaccination is no longer a novel procedure and people presumably are better educated. Well, some of them.