In Jewish folklore there is a town called Chelm in which all the inhabitants are complete idiots.
Over the years many jokes have been told about the foolishness of the people of Chelm. For example:
Two men of Chelm are digging a foundation for a house. One says to the other, “We have a problem. What are we going to do with all this dirt we’re digging out for the foundation?”
“Not to worry,” the other man says. “We’ll dig another hole and put it in there.”
The first man is satisfied with this solution for a while. But then he says, “Wait a minute – that won’t work! Where will we put the dirt from the second hole?”
“No problem,” the other man assures him. “We’ll just dig a hole twice as big and put the dirt from the foundation and the other hole in there.”
There’s something very Chelm-like about the behavior of Bend’s “leaders” when it comes to dealing with growth. They haven’t figured out how to fix the mess created by the latest boom and bust yet, but they’re doing their damnedest to get another boom cranked up.
For example, the Business section of this morning’s Bulletin proclaims: “Over next 10 years, Central Oregon expected to see strong job growth … Economists say it will be fastest rate in the state.”
“State economists estimate that 11,000 new jobs will spring up in Central Oregon by 2018, while the state as a whole will see an increase of about 163,000 total jobs,” the story begins. “Job growth in Central Oregon’s three counties — Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook — is expected to rise the fastest in the state, increasing from 2008 staffing numbers by 14 percent, to 92,340 jobs. That’s compared with statewide growth estimated at about 9 percent.”
What’s the reasoning behind this rosy forecast?
“Over the last 10 years, Central Oregon has grown tons faster than the state,” according to Carolyn Eagan, Central Oregon’s regional economist. (“Tons faster” – that sounds real scientific, doesn’t it?)
“There was nothing to me that would indicate that wouldn’t happen after the recession,” Eagan continued.
In other words: Central Oregon had rapid job growth in the previous 10 years; therefore it will have rapid job growth in the next 10 years. Q.E.D.
Eagan says she doesn’t see any reason to think the next 10 years won’t be like the last boom period. I’m not an economist, but I think I can glimpse one: Virtually all of the region’s past job growth was driven by the real estate bubble, and it’s delusional to think another such bubble is going to inflate here within the next 10 years – if ever.
Nor should we want it to. The problem with bubbles is they burst. And when they do, it’s a disaster. People lose their jobs, their homes, their investments.
Meanwhile the city, which has become dependent on an ever-increasing revenue stream from rampant growth, finds itself without money to pay for the schools, police, firefighters, sewers, roads and other things that new development requires.
Yet the same characters who led the cheering for the previous bubble are out there shaking their pom-poms for a new one. Less than a week ago, for example, The Bulletin was trumpeting the news that Bend’s inventory of unsold houses had “plummeted.”
We could take the bubble and bust as an opportunity to re-examine our way of managing growth and try to create a pattern of steady, sustainable development instead of repeating the boom-and-bust cycle endlessly.
But my bet is we’ll just go on digging more holes.
This article appears in Nov 19-25, 2009.
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I completely agree with Mr. Miller. It is the current mind set of every liberal politician currently and most people who have to depend upon government for their paycheck or hand out. Sustained controlled growth with a responsibly managed revenue stream is the the only way in which Oregon, nevertheless Central Oregon, will not follow the fiscally blind path of California. I have built several sucessful businesses and had a few couple small failures. The failures were all due to those at the top trying to do or be more than reality would allow. A wise man once sadi” Spit in one hand and wish in the other, then see which one will get fullest the fastest. Our media and government are just wishing and running out of spit at the same time.
I actually think that hoping for a return to an irrational boom time based on media hype, etc. is as good a chance as any to create jobs around here.
If we think about job growth more rationally, in terms of what specific industries and what specific businesses we can attract, what their prospects are and how our area would be able to compete with other areas for those businesses and industries, it becomes depressing.
The Bulletin’s story itself is based on nothing. The “hook” of the article is that the state economists forecast 2% higher job growth in Central Oregon than in the rest of the state.
OK, #1, when the forecast has no basis, as HBM pointed out, a 2% difference means nothing and is well within the margin of error, and #2, C.O. currently has higher unemployment than the rest of Oregon so a slightly higher job growth rate might just mean that C.O. catches up to the rest of Oregon, which in turn has one of the highest unemployment rates in the U.S.A.
No worries, they’ll all move here…
The New Dust Bowl. -Waterwise, 20th century California was an anomaly, a relatively wet period in the midst of a historical cycle of severe drought. the changing climate will only magnify the problem: central California could experience temperatures rivaling Death Valley’s and face the loss of 90 percent of the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the region’s main water source.
“A wise man once said” Spit in one hand and wish in the other, then see which one will get fullest the fastest.”
I used to hear that saying from my father, but his version didn’t use the word “spit.” It used a different four-letter word that rhymes with “spit.”
The root of our problem is that the powers-that-be in Bend have always had (and continue to have) unrealistic expectations about what this town can be. They need to give up the idea that it can be, or should be, some kind of major metropolis. Instead they need to focus on making it the best possible version of what it can be — a pleasant medium-sized town with an economy based on tourism, recreation, retirees, and some light industry.
“No worries, they’ll all move here…”
Git out the shotgun, Clem!
Fabulous Chelm story. So well told. Next we will be selling the “diamonds” glittering after a cold winter’s snow. Mazel!
Did that economist mention “tons” of free bubble-up and rainbow stew for everyone?
Just who exactly made the “tourism, recreation, retirees, and some light industry” decision anyway? Some EarthFirster who moved up here twenty-five years ago and decided we would STOP being the lumbertown we had been all along and viciously set about without provocation or consideration of long-term economic consequence to hasten the demise of the traditional way of life my family had practiced here for four generations?
While I have long and often questioned the, ahhhh… “wisdom” of city councils past and present, I am not willing to lay this particular canard at their feet. Bend will continue to grow, people will continue to move here. This bust, while severe, the severest of the five I’ve been through in my five and a half decades here, is a blip on the long-term picture. Bend will continue to grow.
Several months ago the paper of record published interviews with several of Bend’s movers and shakers, one interview where I first saw the term “climate change refugee” practically applied. Yes, I know, it’s hard to believe: The Bullshiten and a guy who paid big bucks to shake George Bush’s hand between his starting a forest fire in our backyard and rounds of golf at Crosswater, speaking practically about climate change.
No worries, they’ll all move here…
Facing a ten year drought and a 90 percent reduction in Sierra Nevada snowpack, California, Arizona and Southern Nevada have at best a two year supply of their own water on hand. Bend’s Best Kept Secret is we have more water here than we care to talk about, those people are going to move here…
The past two winters the freeway between Vancouver (WA) and Tacoma has flooded in late December due to a combination of rising sealevels and subductive pressure along the collision of the Juan deFuqua and North American continental plates. About every five hundred years or so that subduction zone slips, resulting in catastrophic earthquake (there was one out there just the other day). Picture this: place the tips of the fingers of your right hand against the quicks of the fingernails of your left hand and apply pressure. What happens? Your fingers “slip”. Now put a small pencil (paper, cigarette butt) on top of the fingers of your right hand and do it again. What happens? The pencil LEAPS into the air. It’s been about five hundred years, those people are going to move here…
As the North Atlantic Conveyor that moves warmer water and the associated “Gulf Stream” air along the North Atlantic coasts leaving those coasts “temperate” and habitable continues to collapse as a result of the accelerated melting of Greenland’s glaciers, the temperate weather along those coasts will deteriorate into what may be a repeat of the “mini iceage” experienced 12,000 years ago. An iceage recent studies have shown took not ten years, not a hundred years, to develop… just one. From “temperate” to uninhabitable, pretty much everything north of New Jersey and the South of France, in one year. Those people are going to move here…
We don’t even want to talk about the Christo-Fascist insanity of the Confederate states. Hopefully, those people will not move here…
Bend will continue to grow. Whether we like it or no. This bust is a blip on the long-term picture. Bend will continue to grow, people will continue to move here.
Nice article, HBM.
“Over the last 10 years, Central Oregon has grown tons faster than the state,” according to Carolyn Eagan, Central Oregon's regional economist. “There was nothing to me that would indicate that wouldn't happen after the recession,” Eagan continued.
That is the money quote. Eagan clearly does not understand what drove the growth in the first place. You are right, the housing boom played a major role. But what really drove the housing boom in Bend? National media portraying it as a mecca for outdoor enthusiasts and retirees looking for a quaint little town with 300 days of sunshine a year, etc etc etc.
The problem is, Bend ain’t a quaint little town anymore. It’s chock full of ugly subdivisions everywhere you look. And many of the people who flocked there for those 300 days of sunshine have realized that that’s bogus, and the weather is actually kinda shitty.
The scope of media attention that Bend enjoyed will never be replayed. Those Outside magazines and such always look for the “next big thing,” and Bend is old news. They will be touting the next up-and-comers like Northern Idaho, Central Washington, Utah, hell, maybe even Wyoming and Montana…there are tons of other “quaint little towns” with outdoor amenities that rival and even surpass Bend’s.
And without that national media hawking Bend’s desirability, the region will not see anywhere near the growth rates it saw during the boom. Sure, there might still be people that move there to retire, but they will likely only be making up for the people who leave in order to find a better job elsewhere. After all, it’s hard to raise a family on minimum wage.
Slacker: What is there for me to say but “Amen”?
“Slacker: What is there for me to say but “Amen”?”
I know I know…preaching to the choir…
Thomas, your theory about the Chehalis river flooding I5 the last two years is “interesting”, but quite wrong.
“past two winters the freeway between Vancouver (WA) and Tacoma has flooded in late December due to a combination of rising sealevels and subductive pressure along the collision of the Juan deFuqua and North American continental plates”
The reality is, the river has flooded out the I5 corridor because the city of Centralia developed the floodplain along the freeway, installing a dike system to make a well known floodplain into “buildable” land. They’ve paid for their arrogance by inundating the freeway and major portions of the commercial areas around it twice during heavy rain events. It will happen again and again, because they’ve taken away the lowland area that used to absorb high water events.
Plate tectonics and global warming causing rising sea levels has absolutely nothing to do with it. Developers greed caused the problem, just like right here in Good Old Bend.
“From “temperate” to uninhabitable, pretty much everything north of New Jersey and the South of France, in one year. Those people are going to move here…”
I think I’ll move to the South of France instead.
“Some EarthFirster who moved up here twenty-five years ago and decided we would STOP being the lumbertown we had been all along and viciously set about without provocation or consideration of long-term economic consequence to hasten the demise of the traditional way of life my family had practiced here for four generations?”
The Bend mills closed because all the prime Ponderosa timber had been cut down, Tom, and you know it. Environmental issues had nothing to do with it. The damn spotted owl doesn’t even live on this side of the Cascades.
The timber industry has behaved the same way for 200 years. After they cut down the forests of Maine they moved on to Minnesota. After they cut down the forests of Minnesota they moved on to the Pacific Northwest. Now they’re cutting down the forests of Siberia.
Maybe after they’ve cut down all the trees in Siberia they’ll come back to Maine and the whole cycle will start over again. Call it a form of “crop rotation.”