As I write this it’s cold and rainy outside. That’s cold, according to The Weather Channel, as in twenty-five degrees below normal for this time of year. Rainy as in near record breaking rainfall for a single day in October.
Meanwhile down in the San Francisco Bay Area where they normally get a tenth of an inch of rain in October, they’ve had over two inches of it already with more to come and two weeks to go in the month.
So what gives with the funky weather and what’s to follow?
As to what gives, I blame it all on the Obama administration. Just kidding, but the current administration is does a popular target when it comes to things going wrong.
But if the “O-Man” and his team aren’t the problem, what’s is -global warming; global climate change? Even our local all-knowing weather sage Bob Shaw doesn’t have the answer.
So what should we expect over the next few months? It’s my humble opinion that we’ll have a mild winter. This is based on my thirty-two years in Central Oregon. During that period, every time we’ve had lousy weather in October the ensuing winter months were mild.
I recall flying home in early October years ago from Salt Lake after getting snowed out of a multi-day mountain bike trip in the Moab area and arriving in Redmond to 18 degree temps and snow flurries. Come New Year’s Day a group of us went hiking at Smith Rock State Park in bright, sunny 65-degree weather which was typical for most of the winter.
So, I’m betting on a mild winter which will be a comfort to those who moved here recently expecting Bend to have mild temperate (read no snow) winters and those fabled “300 days of sunshine a year.”
State climatologists have, in the recent past, said that we should be soon experiencing warmer and wetter winters. If that true, skiing will become an over 6,000 feet in elevation experience and Bend might experience more Portland-like weather.
But then we’re talking about the weather. A subject Mark Twain took up in an 1876 speech. Addressing England’s weather, he noted: “I have counted one hundred and sixty-six different kinds of weather inside of twenty-four hours”
Sometimes it feels that way here in Central Oregon as well.
Twain added: “one of the brightest gems in the New England weather is the dazzling uncertainty of it.”
That applies to Central Oregon as well. So, welcome to an early winter with more or less of the same to follow.
This article appears in Oct 15-21, 2009.
MAKE LOCAL JOURNALISM HAPPEN
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
I’ve lived here more than 24 years, and in that period it seems that the winters have gotten milder (less snow, not as cold) but longer (chilly, wet weather extending well into May and sometimes June). In other words our climate is getting more like Portland’s. Not a good thing.
The winter of ’78-9 it rained throughout the month of October, and froze in November. I was fitting sewer pipe in Redmond until it got to crisis proportions, with, as I recall, something like a hundred days below freezing, half of which were below zero. The frostline went to three feet and we were using jackhammers to bust up the top soil. Everyone from here to Maupin’s water/septic/sewer pipes were frozen, some backuped up into the house and flooded/froze basements before pushing the house off of its foundation, and that was the lucrative gig for the winter: everybody with a pickup and a welder made money. Not much precipitation, just lots of clear “300 plus” really freaking cold days.
It’s a lot warmer ’round here these days.
From NaturalOregon.com: So What About This Winter?
Friday, October 16, 2009
By Dennis Newman
Lots of buzz this week about the upcoming winter. If you ride your bicycle year-round, it might be good news. But if you're a farmer, or a salmon, it's probably not so good.
This graphic from NOAA shows the winter (December – February) temperature outlook for the Western U.S.
This graphic from NOAA shows the winter (December – February) temperature outlook for the Western U.S.
As these newly released graphics from NOAA show, much of Oregon and the Pacific Northwest can expect a winter that will probably be drier and warmer than average.
The blame, if you want to call it that, can be put on El Nino. An El Nino happens when the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm along the equator near South America. That can lead to a change in the direction of the jetstream, and our big Northwest winter storms are pushed south in California.
Much of Northern Oregon can expect a drier than average winter. NOAA Graphic.
Much of Northern Oregon can expect a drier than average winter. NOAA Graphic.
According to NOAA, the current El Nino is expected to get stronger and continue through the winter months.
Keep in mind that we're dealing with averages. Even if these predictions hold up, there's still a good chance we'll get big storms. It's just that they may not be as big or as frequent. Keep the snow chains handy.
While the prospects of a warmer, drier weather may sound good to most of us, there are reasons for concern. Below average rain means below average snowpack, which impacts everything from water supply for humans, irrigation for farmers and river levels for fish. Last winter's snowpack for the Northwest was also below average, and having two “dry” winters in a row only compounds the problem.
Areas in yellow are “abnormally dry” while tan areas in a “moderate drought”. NOAA Graphic
Areas in yellow are “abnormally dry” while tan areas in a “moderate drought”. NOAA Graphic
As this NOAA graphic shows, most of Oregon is either abnormally dry or in a drought.
All this depends on how long the El Nino lasts and if it really does get stronger. According to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Bulletin, forecasters with the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group are calling this a “weak” El Nino which so far has shown no signs of intensifying. But they're not ruling that out either.
For more information:
NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather