Wildfire smoke is stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from Bend’s tourism economy.
That’s according to a new study from the Sustainable Tourism Lab at the OSU-Cascades campus, where researchers sought to quantify the economic loss correlated with decreased visitation when skies are smoky. The study, released Aug. 6, found hotels miss out on nearly $500,000 in lodging revenue with each 10-point increase in the Air Quality Index.
Those losses have a trickle-down effect for local retailers and restaurants, workers and City tax revenues for things like fire and police.
“As smoke increases, so does the economic losses,” said Sustainable Tourism Lab Founder and Director Todd Montgomery, who led the research, in a video explaining the study. “By the time smoke becomes consistently unhealthy, those losses can become substantial.”
The study is based on lodging revenue data and air quality measurements from each day in August over the last five years.
It’s important to note that wildfire smoke accounted for only 10% of the variation in lodging tax revenue from year to year, Montgomery said. The other 90% is explained by factors like the economy, fuel prices and special events.
According to Montogomery, bad air quality on a single day had little correlation with revenue losses. But the longer skies stayed smoky, the less likely visitors were to stay in local accommodations. When smoke is consistent year-after-year, the more powerful the effect on tourism.
The findings come on the heels of a record-breaking wildfire season that blanketed Central Oregon with smoke, part of the some 2 million acres burned across the state. Today, wildfire smoke in Bend is far more prevalent than it was 20 years ago, according to a 2025 report from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. From 2013 through 2025, Bend saw 101 days when the Air Quality Index reading surpassed 100, which is unhealthy for sensitive groups. In the previous 12 years, that happened only six times.
Research shows human-caused climate change is a key driver of longer, more extreme fire seasons that result in smokier skies.
According to the tourism lab, wildfire smoke is one example of “climate refuge travel” — when people pick travel destinations to avoid climate hazards like extreme heat, floods and severe storms.
Angela Salido, owner of Outside In, a clothing store in downtown Bend, said she’s noticed a clear drop in sales when wildfire smoke rolls in. The effect of wildfire smoke wasn’t on her mind when she bought the business 10 years ago, but it’s become more of an issue, she said. If a particular day is shaping up to be smoky, Salido said she might call off staff in expectation of a slow day.
Smoke not only keeps visitors away, but makes locals less likely to shop downtown, Salido said.
“We can pretty much guarantee if it’s smoky our numbers are going to be down,” Salido said.
The new study has implications for organizations such as Visit Bend, the tourism marketing organization funded through taxes on visitor stays in hotels and short-term rentals, and for the City, which takes about 70% of the tax for its general fund.
One implication is that tourist destinations may have to rethink how they market their communities and build resiliency to climate events, Montgomery said.
Tim Neville, a spokesperson for Visit Bend, said the organization has been working for years to promote Bend as a place for more than just outdoor recreation. That includes theater, live music, lectures, museums, galleries and restaurants. In the past decade, Visit Bend has spent $2.8 million in lodging tax money on arts and culture events outside of the summer season.
The group has also funded trail-building coalitions and sustainability nonprofits while informing vacation rental owners and companies about resources for how to build defensible space.
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