Does Your Vote Affect Your Home's Value? - The Source

Election season has a funny way of turning everyone into a political analyst, an economist and occasionally a real estate forecaster. Suddenly, everyone seems to have an opinion on what the election will mean for the housing market.

Should you wait until after the election to buy or sell? Could the outcome influence what your home is worth?

The historical numbers from Deschutes County tell a more interesting story. Looking at nearly two decades of local real estate activity, there is little evidence of a consistent election-driven shift in sales. The broader economy, on the other hand, has a much more visible impact.

What Happens After Election Day?

National research supports that idea. A 35-year analysis by John Burns Research and Consulting found that existing home sales declined an average of 19% during the five months leading up to presidential elections, compared with 22% in non-election years. The typical seasonal slowdown was actually slightly less pronounced during election years.

The local numbers tell a similar story.

Between 2007 and 2025, Deschutes County averaged approximately 361 closed sales in October during election years, compared with 348 in non-election years. November averages were nearly identical: 293 during election years and 296 during non-election years.

January closings following presidential elections averaged 223. Following non-election years, the average was 225. Apparently, Deschutes County buyers aren’t all waiting until the morning after Election Day to make their move.

Active inventory followed a similar pattern. Listings declined by roughly 9% from October to November in both election and non-election years. There is little evidence in these numbers of sellers dramatically changing their plans because of an election.

It’s worth noting that these figures track closed sales and active inventory, not home prices directly. They offer a look at whether election cycles appear to influence local market activity.

Data sourced from local FlexMLS and is deemed reliable. Data represents residential single-family homes in Deschutes County.

When the Economy Takes Over

Two presidential election years offer a particularly clear illustration of how much the economy can outweigh the political calendar.

In 2008, Deschutes County recorded 207 closed sales in October, 126 in November, and just 119 in January 2009 as the housing crisis took hold.

Fast-forward to 2020. October recorded 548 closed sales, the highest October total in the dataset. November followed with 413 closings as the pandemic fueled a remarkable surge in housing demand.

Same election cycle, completely different economic realities. Employment, consumer confidence, housing supply, affordability and population movement all help shape the local market. Those forces have a far greater influence on real estate activity than the outcome of an election.

What This Means for Central Oregon

So, does your vote affect your home’s value? Not in any predictable, immediate way that historical sales data can demonstrate.

The Deschutes County numbers show remarkably similar sales activity during election and non-election years, with no consistent post-election spike. They also show how dramatically market conditions can change when the economy shifts.

Political decisions can certainly influence housing over time through taxation, development regulations and housing policy. But for Central Oregon buyers and sellers, the election itself shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a real estate decision.

Personal circumstances, local inventory, affordability and broader economic conditions are much more useful places to focus. The right time to make a move is ultimately going to depend on your situation — not just what’s happening in Washington.

Around here, the housing market is more likely to be influenced by inventory, interest rates and whether someone just listed a house with a mountain view, rather than by the latest campaign promise.

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