DAS Office of Economic Analysis Presents Q1 March Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast

The Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy presented the latest economic outlook and revenue forecast to the legislative committee on finance and revenue on Wednesday, Feb. 4. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to the public and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process.

What is different about this forecast?

The first quarter (Q1) March economic outlook shows improvement as government data releases have primarily returned to their normal schedule following the federal government shutdown last fall. Both state and national economic resilience remain a key focus. A stronger growth outlook, supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, further reduces recession risks and is expected to create positive labor market conditions.

Revenue Forecast

As new information about prior tax years becomes available, it reshapes the understanding of tax collections related to economic activity. Over the last three months, updated data shows Corporate Income Tax liability is stronger than expected, while Personal Income Tax liability is modestly lower than previously estimated. Improved data on economic output and profitability, along with resources carried over from the prior biennium, contribute to the net change in the projected General Fund balance.

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis, within the Department of Administrative Services, and provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) and recent forecasts, please visit the OEA website.

Governor Tina Kotek issued a statement in response to the first quarter revenue forecast

“Oregon’s economy continues to show signs of resilience, even though President Trump’s economic policies are exacerbating inflation pressures and cost of living challenges for Oregonians. My focus remains on driving solutions for people struggling to make ends meet and defending Oregon’s values in the face of federally-driven cuts to essential services.”

Positive revenue forecast good news. Rebalancing the budget remains challenge:

Senate President Rob Wagner (D-Lake Oswego) is releasing the following statement:

“Today’s revenue forecast is good news, but Oregon is still facing a budget crisis. There are difficult choices ahead as we work to rebalance a state budget that lost $900 million this biennium due to federal actions and will lose an additional $15 billion in federal dollars over the next six years.

Oregon’s economy has proven to be resilient in the face of unprecedented actions by the federal administration. The Legislature needs to continue its focus on protecting core, mandatory state services, investing in everyday Oregonians, and budgeting responsibly with enough cushion to shield Oregon from future federal economic chaos.”

Senate Majority Leader Kayse Jama sees Oregon’s strength in quarterly economic forecast:

Oregon’s March economic forecast showed an uptick in growth and an increase in the state’s population. Senate Majority Leader Kayse Jama (D – E Portland, Boring & Damascus) has this statement on the forecast:

“Today’s forecast had good signs for Oregon’s businesses and communities, showing economic growth is persevering and our population is rising. This is welcome news in a turbulent time. President Trump’s tax loopholes for billionaires, Medicaid cuts, chaotic tariffs, and militarized federal police are weighing on everyday Oregonians.

“Trump’s tax bill put a giant hole in Oregon’s budget, threatening state resources for carrying out core services, like emergency response, education, health care, and public safety. It’s time to close Trump’s tax loopholes, invest in economic development for Oregon jobs, and cut the tax burden for people with modest incomes.

“We will celebrate every indicator that prosperity is growing for Oregonians as we work for make life here safe, fair, and affordable for all.”

Majority Leader Bowman Releases Statement on Oregon Revenue Forecast:

House Majority Leader Ben Bowman (D-Tigard, Metzger, & S. Beaverton) issued the following statement on the Revenue Forecast released this morning by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis:

“While modestly good news at the state level, most Oregonians won’t be impacted by what we learned in the revenue forecast today. Many will wake up tomorrow and still struggle to pay skyrocketing healthcare costs, rising rent, and growing grocery bills.

Oregon has to make tough budget decisions because of Congress’ decision to strip away billions of dollars from Oregonians. Unlike the federal government, we can’t run up trillions of dollars in debt. We will tighten our belt like all families do in tough times – but we also have to fight to protect healthcare, food support, and critical services for the kids and families who need them.”

Speaker Fahey Statement on March Revenue Forecast:

“Today’s revenue forecast gives us a clearer picture of the work ahead of us this session to ensure that our budget is balanced. It’s great news that revenues are up, but Oregon is still on the hook to pay for hundreds of millions of dollars in costs to provide SNAP and Medicaid services, due to the cuts and unfunded mandates in Trump’s budget bill. These costs are eroding the state’s ability to pay for our schools, basic health care services, and public safety.

“Oregon leaders are responding by finding efficiencies in critical programs, making careful reductions to agencies, and closing tax loopholes for big corporations and the wealthy. We are committed to balancing the state budget in a way that prioritizes Oregon families, small businesses, and the services they rely on, while growing our economy for a brighter future.

“We know the stakes are high this session as we address the challenges facing our state. The steps we are taking now will protect Oregon’s most critical services, now and in the years to come.”

Oregon’s Public Universities urge support for students, emphasize economic development in response to revenue forecast

In response to today’s revenue forecast, Oregon’s public universities are calling on state lawmakers to protect students and prioritize educational access in upcoming budget decisions.

“Oregon’s economy needs stable and long-term drivers, and public higher education is the engine that can get us there. We produce the workforce, innovation, and economic activity that powers this state forward,” said University of Oregon President Karl Scholz, who currently serves as the Chair of the Coalition of Oregon Public Universities. “Now is not the time to make cuts to the very institutions that form the engine of our economic resilience.”

At a time with rising income inequality and tightening household budgets, access to affordable education and career development opportunities is crucial. Public university leaders urge the legislature to protect need-based financial aid and preserve critical operating funds that directly benefit Oregon’s students.

Reaction from Our Oregon: Hiding in plain sight: February revenue forecast obscures a looming crisis

New revenue forecast, same tale of two economies: Large corporations and the ultra-wealthy continue to profit from massive tax giveaways at the expense of hardworking families who face rising costs of healthcare and childcare, rising inflation, and the looming threat of further budget cuts to healthcare, childcare, education, public safety, and other critical services.

The choice facing lawmakers this legislative session has only become more consequential. They can rubber-stamp President Trump’s tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy and big corporations or reject those wasteful tax breaks to protect the millions of Oregonians who need affordable healthcare and childcare, well-funded public schools, safe and thriving communities, and an economy that delivers opportunity, good-paying jobs, and affordability for hard-working families.

Big corporations and many politicians will respond to this revenue forecast by saying no further action is needed to prevent massive cuts to healthcare, childcare, education, public safety, and other critical services. They’ll call for even more taxpayer money to be handed out to large corporations instead of investing in Oregon. The facts are not on their side.

The truth is that the status quo is failing hard-working Oregon families, who deserve an economy that offers opportunity, the path to prosperity, and the promise of stable, well-funded public services now and into the future.

Here’s the economic reality facing Oregon households that aren’t raking in record profits, capital gains, and tens of thousands of dollars in new tax breaks from President Trump’s disastrous federal budget bill, HR 1:

As of the November 2025 revenue forecast, the average family in Oregon had paid $845 in higher costs due to inflation since President Trump took office last January. Today – just three months later – that number has more than doubled to $1,791.
In Oregon, the average annual premiums climbed to $24,688 for employees who paid for family insurance. That’s the highest ever reported for the state.
Between 2020 and 2024, the average annual cost of child care increased by 29% to $13,128, with Oregon ranking among the 5 least affordable states for families to afford childcare.

That’s the crisis today. Here’s the looming crisis tomorrow:

Federal cuts to programs Oregonians rely on for basic needs, like Medicaid and food assistance programs, are expected to cost the state more than $15 billion through mid-2031 due to federal funding cuts
The Oregon Health Authority estimates that between 150,000 and 200,000 Oregonians could lose Medicaid coverage due to HR 1 funding cuts.
The Oregon Department of Human Services estimates that more than 313,000 people enrolled in SNAP could be impacted by the changes in HR 1, including thousands of refugees who have already or who will soon lose benefits.
Employment Related Day Care (ERDC), Oregon’s statewide childcare subsidy program, will run out of money in January 2027. This program serves over 12,000 families and nearly 30,000 children in every corner of our state.

Oregonians across the state are already suffering the consequences of the economic chaos coming out of DC, paying more to put food on the table, keep their homes warm, see a doctor when they’re sick, and cover childcare costs. Now, to pay for giveaways to the ultra-wealthy, Oregon families are being squeezed again — this time, facing cuts to the critical services we all rely on. Fight for Our Future is a coalition of organizations urging elected leaders to fight for Oregon’s working families this legislative session by disconnecting from many of the most wasteful federal tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy.

This story is based on submitted information and has not been verified by our news team.